Ricky Nolasco had a year of extremes in 2009. His BABIP was 3rd highest in the majors while his LOB% was the lowest by a wide margin, but he also had a K/9 in the top ten, BB/9 in the top twenty, and the fifth best K/BB in the game. All of which led to another extreme - his FIP-ERA was highest in the league by a mile. Ricky got very unlucky in '09.
The perception is that Nolasco started the year poorly, got sent to the minors to work out his problems, and then pitched well when he returned. While his slow start is not entirely a mirage (he did have two of his three lowest K/9 and K/BB months in April and May) it was mainly a product of terrible BABIP numbers, .393 in April and .385 in May. Nobody can put up good numbers with that kind of luck.
Bill James projects Nolasco at 3.86/189/1.26 and assumes that his K/9 will drop from his '09 numbers and his BB/9 and HR/9 will rise all while maintaining an above average BABIP. In other words, James' numbers are a reasonable worst case scenario for a healthy Nolasco next year. He may never be a truly elite option without trimming his HR/9 rates or dropping a half point off his BB/9 rate but with the bitter taste of a 5+ ERA still lingering in some managers' mouths don't be surprised if Nolasco's perceived value stays low and he becomes a fantastic value as a number two fantasy starter.
Fun comparison (using '09 numbers):
K/9 - 8.75, BB/9 - 1.49, HR/9 - 1.06 = Dan Haren
K/9 - 9.49, BB/9 - 2.14, HR/9 - 1.11 = Ricky Nolasco
