RotoSavants' Top 100(+2) for 2010: Part 2

During the conclusion of 2009 and into this year's playoffs, we'll be compiling our current Top 100 rankings for next year.

All 6 authors will be taking turns nominating whom they think are the best fantasy players in baseball, along with our first two big sleepers of 2010 upon conclusion. We'll also neatly wrap up and revise our initial Top 100 in the offseason, so you'll always have a quick list to use right before draft time.

In Part 2 this week, we'll be looking at players 13-24.

13. Grady Sizemore (Aaron Murray)

Obviously there is some concern surrounding Sizemore coming off his injuries in '09 but there are good reasons to think that the old Grady will be back in '10. Even during his disappointing '09 seasons he didn't seem to change his approach at the plate, slightly improving both his K% and BB%. His OBP was down but not as much as his BABIP, and his SLG% and ISO were down but not too much from his career numbers. In the end '09 was a somewhat short, somewhat poor, somewhat unlucky season for Sizemore but not the outright disaster that some Sizemore owners might remember - had Sizemore played out the full season his numbers would have been worth about a seventh round pick. Considering that he put up seventh round numbers playing with a bum elbow and a sports hernia I'd be happy to get him in the second round in '10.

Lee: This is how I felt as a Sizemore owner this year. While frustrating that my pick of him went to waste, when I consider the injuries he did incur, he still produced fairly well in limited action. Something I did find interesting: The odd spike in strikeouts early in the year quickly got fixed when he returned, and his season ratios, like you mentioned, fell back in line as expected. That makes me feel comfortable drafting him next year.

14. Ian Kinsler (Corey Dawkins)

I can't believe that he fell this far but I would take Ian Kinsler in a heartbeat here. Elite middle infielders are hard to find and getting a 30/30 guy this late in the draft who happens to be a 2B is unbelievable. Kinsler has been getting better each year and in 2009, setting career highs in HR, SB, RBIs, TBs, and isolated power. The one number that stands out to me though is his BABIP which is at a ridiculously low .244. Previously his lowest BABIP was .285 and that was the only other time his BABIP was below .300. I fully expect his average to return to normal and his production should be more than enough to get into the first round, rivaling that of Hanley. Putting that average back in line with close to the same production from 2009 puts his line at 280/350/500 and 30HR, 85RBI, 100 R, and 30 SB for 2010. Not bad at all.

Lee: Any concern about his LD%? A drop from 24% to 14% definitely affected his BABIP, and his OBP as well. Those 97 runs should have been a lot better? At least he kept his walk rate in the high 9% where it's been slowly improving after last year's dip.

Troy: He could have gone earlier, but 2009 was his first season breaking 130 games and two seasons he was stuck at 120. He was quickly developing an injury risk tag. I wouldn't say that is all removed yet, but when he is on the field he is a candidate for the number 1 fantasy second baseman.

15. Miguel Cabrera (Lee Perrault)
Another "safe" nomination, and Cabrera makes our 5th first basemen of the Top 15. After a slight misstep in production last year, Cabrera jumped back up to being 950+ OPS player, and since 2005, he's posted OPS numbers of .947, .998, .965, .887, and .952. With a growing HR/FB rate, a solid walk rate and a declining strikeout rate, it's possible that Cabrera still hasn't even had his "breakout" season yet.

Did I mention he's still only 26? After Pujols, I'm thinking Cabrera may actually be the best value of all the firstbasemen if he's the 5th guy off the board. If he's hanging around the 2nd round, you'll reap the benefits like the guy who stole Fielder from me in Round 2 this past season :(

Aaron: The top 20 is looking very deep for 2010. I'm thinking I want to have something like the 9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th draft pick next year so that I can get Kemp and Sizemore, A-Rod and Kinsler, or Mauer and Miggy. Outside of Pujols and maybe Hanley I'm not seeing a lot of separation between the top twenty.

Lee: Aaron, absolutely. Unless I'm picking 1st, I'm definitely trading down.

Kevin: One thing I like about Miggy is his constantly high average. He's like Pujols, who can give you a very high average to offset any low-BA pickup in later rounds. I actually like Miggy as much as Teixeira for this reason. Teix will get more RBI, and he hit a few more HR (thanks to New Yankee Stadium), but Miggy's BA was 30 points higher.


16. Zack Greinke (Kevin Jebens)
There's everything to like here, and I don't see any reason not to assume Greinke won't be one of the very top pitchers next year. Some look at his ERA and assume it has to balloon back up, but it certainly wasn't luck because his BABIP was .307. He's a strikeout machine and doesn't walk many batters. The guy was touted before he took some time off. On a better team he'd be a top-10 pick, and you could probably justify it anyway.

Aaron: He's one of the most cerebral players in baseball and on a better team he would challenge Lincecum as the most valuable hurler in the MLB. Did you know that he used to go scout college players on his off-days? And take batting practice after his regular workouts, just for fun?


17. Justin Upton (Ryan A. Restivo)
I would say that many people will come out and have a thorough man-crush or "bromance", if you will, for Upton. Let it begin now.


Kevin: I'd like to see him do it again before guaranteeing him a top-20 spot, but you certainly can't deny the talent the guy has.

18. Matt Holliday (Troy Patterson)

Here is the first player that could be changing value based on a team change, but unless he heads back to Oakland or an NL West team he should return to first round value next year. His move out of the pitching park of Oakland led his OPS to go from .831 to 1.015. A lot of his struggles this year also came against lefties where his OPS was only .808. This is below his career splits and although he is better against right handers the numbers should all regress to the mean.

19. Evan Longoria (Aaron Murray)
What a solid pick-up in the middle of the second round if he drops this far. Longoria is showing signs of growth as he's walking more and striking out less this year than last, although his power numbers are slightly down. Mostly though he's just a really safe bet to put up great numbers in every category except steals. And by the way, Evan, if you're reading this, try running more. After all, you've never been caught in the Major Leagues. That's right, never. Not once. I've got a goal for you for 2010: fifteen stolen bases. Sound good? You can do it, big guy. You can do it.

Ryan:
What do these numbers have in common?

Exhibit A: .233/ .341/.411
Exhibit B: .189/.290/.411
Exhibit C: .259/.336/.435

They are Longoria's June, July and August numbers. Just warning you before you pay too much for him next year, it's a slight red flag.

Aaron:
Yeah, it is pretty weird that he went through that spell, but I'm willing to overlook it because of his very good September, .314/.395/.590. If he was playing with a nagging injury or something then it seemed to have healed up by the end of the year. Even if you just take his June-August stats a full season projected at those numbers is about 80/24/72/8/.229, certainly not what you expect from Longo but not utterly terrible, either, and that's at his absolute worst.

20. Adrian Gonzalez (Lee Perrault)

Much like my pick of Miguel Cabrera, Adrian is another player I think is poised for a breakout at first base. Some fun Adrian Gonzales facts:

Since his first full MLB season with the Padres in 2006, Adrian Gonzales has doubled his walk rate. And this isn't a small increase either.

Year - BB%/K%
2006 - 8.4% / 19.8%
2007 - 9.1% / 21.7%
2008 - 10.7% / 23.1%
2009 - 17.7% / 19.6%

Your first outburst could be, "But Lee, his lineup sucks, didn't they just pitch around him?" Not so fast, my friend: Adrian only has 3 more IBBs this year in comparison to 2008.

There will always be question marks about the ballpark, the tepid lineup, and everything else that stinks about San Diego. But for a player with such a ridiculous growth pattern in his plate discipline, a continuous increase in HR/FB%, and a sustained LD% while having a plummeting BABIP, this just screams breakout.

Kevin: What's more, you have to assume he'll eventually leave San Diego. They seem to think they can compete in 2010, but if they fall flat in the first half, I wouldn't be surprised if A-Gon is traded (though I'm betting more on a 2011 departure).

21. Troy Tulowitzki (Kevin Jebens)
The best SS not named Hanley. Some might think this spot is a bit high to rank him, but he'll be 25 in 2010, and he's actually turned into a power/speed combo that rivals Hanley and Utley this year. Don't believe me? Take a look at Utley's and Tulo's lines:

.282/112/31/93/23
.297/101/32/92/20

The difference is imperceptible except in a few more R due to the better Phillies lineup. The top tier for middle infield is crowded, and I'd actually be more than happy to miss out on Hanley and Utley, pick up a 40-HR 1B, and then swoop in and grab Tulo. If he learns the nuances of stealing and reduces his CS (only a 64.5% success rate this year), I wouldn't be surprised to see a 35 HR, 25 SB season from him.

Lee: Tulo's season astounds me, and he's going to be someone that I think is going to have a varied ADP after stinking up the joint in 2008.

Aaron: Tulo could be a real value pick for '10 depending on his ADP. Let somebody else pay for Hanley and Reyes, and overpay for Rollins and Jeter, then swoop in for Tulowitzki. His HRs were all over the field this year which usually means that the power is for real.

22. Carl Crawford (Troy Patterson)
If you have been here before you know I don't like to overvalue speed, but Crawford's consistent top flight speed is a top 24 talent and shouldn't be overlooked. He used to have the allure of reaching 20+ homers, but we all know now to expect 15-18 homers. I think the .364 OBP is a career high and might be questionable for next year, but the walk rate at 7.8% is a career high as well. A draft choice in Crawford is based mostly in expected value as he has had consistent numbers every year except 2008.

23. "King" Felix Hernandez (Ryan A. Restivo)
Yes this might be too much to early but I think as much as you've seen Grienke take that next step, I believe King Felix will finally become that consistent dominant ace. 2009 saw his career bests in Wins, ERA, Starts, Strikeouts, WHIP, Hits/9 and his best full season strikeout to walk rate.

Ever since Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu called out Felix after a poor outing May 19th, King Felix went 15-2 with a 1.98 ERA. Not bad.

Did I mention 2010 will be his age-24 season?

Aaron: I don't know if I'd want to count on a guy stepping up to the next level when there are guys like Haren, Verlander, Halladay, and even Vazquez who have better track records still on the board. Hernandez was also helped out this year by a HR/FB% of only 7.5% so expect some regression in his FIP. Would I be surprised if King Felix ends up as a top three pitcher next year? Not at all. But to me, there are a couple of guys, even after Lincecum and Grienke, who are safer bets to be at that Best-Of-The-Best level, like Eric Roberts.

24. Ryan Zimmerman (Kevin Jebens)

He's only 25. He had career highs in BA, OBP, and SLG. But most amazing, he got 100+ R, 30+ HR, and 100+ RBI for a team that lost 100 games. Zimm was supposed to break out last year but dealt with injuries. I think it's safe to say that he's back on track to be a top player for years to come. Dunn will provide some protection for another year, which can only help Zimm's value.

Aaron:I'm not saying it isn't justified but it seems pretty amazing that David Wright, a consensus top five pick last year with no injury issues, has slipped behind so many other 3B. That said, unless I'm desperate for steals I'd take Zimmerman over Wright in '10, too. He's primed for a breakout while Wright put up career worst numbers last season even though he had the highest BABIP in the majors by far.

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