Brother Combos

Coming into 2009 we had a bunch of siblings in major league baseball. Let's take a look at a few and their futures.

Uptons (BJ/Justin)
The older veteran player, BJ Upton, was expecting to have a big year after a postseason breakout. BJ's postseason 7 HR and .288/.333/.652 line made it appear that he was ready to have a career year.

BJ might have been expected to regress a little going into 2009. His .351 BABIP was the highest in his pro career since a short stint in 2004 (.339). The last time BJ hit 7 home runs in a month is August of 2007. BJ's walk rate fell from 15.4% to 9.2% in 2009, and that along with a drop in BABIP and slugging percentage led to a .241 year and Upton's lowest OPS since 2006. If we see a rebound in BJ's walk rate, we might see better average numbers. BJ was two strikeouts short (152) of his career high (154). If BJ can turn some of those strikeouts into walks and more of them into big hits, you will see that rebound in OPS, and he will be a legitimate top 5 round player.

While BJ struggled, Justin Upton had a breakout year. Justin posted career highs in practically every offensive category. Justin's walk rate also fell this year, from 13.2% to 9.5%. While that might be cause for alarm, Justin did lower his strikeout rate from 34% to 26%. When you stare at the 2008-2009 stats, you might not notice it, but Justin played 30 more games this year and struck out only 16 more times. Upton had a dominant May (.373/.444/1.154); the 7 HR and 21 RBI earned him National League Player of the Month and his first All-Star Game appearance. He bettered his OPS in limited action August with a .417/.462/.750 line after returning from an injury that plagued him before the all star break.

Justin did have double-digit steal seasons when he was a full time minor leaguer. Upton displayed his speed in the majors for the first time in 2009, stealing 20 bases. Justin is just realizing his potential as a big time fantasy player and will move into his age-22 season in a great ballpark for his power and speed. One interesting tidbit about Upton via Baseball Reference is that Justin fared better against starting pitchers as the game progresses:

1st PA .197/.254/.352
2nd PA .328/.398/.580
3rd PA .374/.446/.778

LaRoches (Andy/Adam)
Adam LaRoche is used to being an Atlanta Brave, he just didn't expect it to happen again this year. After spending three pro seasons with the Braves, Adam LaRoche landed there again at the trade deadline for Casey Kotchman. From there, Adam hit .325/.401/.557 with 12 HR and 40 RBI in 57 games. As a Pirate, Adam hit the same exact HR/RBI but posted a .247 average. In Adam's career, he has been steadily hitting more and more fly balls while his home run rate has fluctuated. Adam put up a career high .332 BABIP while his isolated power numbers went down by .020. Adam's .957 OPS with the Braves was his highest since 2006 when he had a .915 OPS with the Braves. Depending on where he ends up, Adam can be a useful corner option in fantasy leagues. He is entering his age-30 season and we have a good idea on who he is: around a .270 average, .340 OBP, over 120 strikeouts and 20 home run power. Not a bad option for 2010.

Andy LaRoche (.258/.330/.401 in 2009) is still attempting to make his mark in the pros. The former Dodger prospect was traded to the Pirates in 2008 but did not make good on his debuts with either team. Andy hit .152/.227/.232 as a Pirate but was given a shot to win the third base job in 2009. Andy showed a track record of being a 15-20 home run power, good average and on-base skills in his minor league years, but he has not been able to put it together. His walk rate in 2009 decreased from 9.7% to 8.7%. His first full season BABIP was .258, so some improvement could come in 2010. Andy has put up extreme ground ball rates as a pro, so we can't be too sure that the power is coming, even though there was an extremely slight (7.7% to 8%) increase in his Home Runs per Fly Ball percentage over the last two years. Andy helped himself out with a .313/.359/.552 September, with 5 HR and 18 RBI, though that was helped by a .342 BABIP.

Still trying to find a place for him, the Pirates approached him about moving to second base in 2010. When the Pirates bring up Pedro Alvarez, probably in 2010, they will not let LaRoche block him. If he can prove to play second base well (he played 3 games there in 2008), his bat might be more useful as a middle infield/second base option. However the chance that he will be a legit option might not be 2010, add to it that he might have to battle another former Dodger prospect, Delwyn Young (.266/.326/.381 2009)

Hairstons (Scott/Jerry Jr)
Both Hairstons found themselves not only traded from the National League to the American League, but also as fantasy surprises in 2009. Scott Hairston managed to do it while a member of the San Diego Padres. Scott hit .299/.358/.533 as the next best power option behind Adrian Gonzalez. Scott was traded for two minor league arms and went on to hit .236/.262/.391 as a member of the A's. Overall a .265/.307/.456 season looks good with the same amount of HR as 2008 but it could have been much better. Scott has never had a BABIP over .300 in his career (this year his BABIP was .294), and he hits about half his balls in the air. His home run rate decreased this year even though he hit the same amount of homers, and his walk rate was slashed from a mere 7.9% in 2008 to 5.5%. Scott set a career high in doubles with 27. If a few more of those can go over the fence, he could be an outfield option in standard and deep leagues. However we are pretty sure this is what he is: a .260s hitter with some power.

The elder statesman, Jerry Hairston Jr., entered 2009 as a utility player and became an option for the Reds at shortstop until he was traded on July 31st to the Yankees. Jerry put up his career high in home runs (10) and was one away from tying his career high in runs. However, Jerry lost some of his career best .361 BABIP from 2008 to .270 BABIP and hit .251. When Jerry moved from the Reds (.254/.305/.397) to the Yankees (.237/.352/.382) he turned from fantasy surprise to bench player. It might be difficult to see Jerry repeat this performance at age 34, regardless of where he plays.

Drews (JD/Stephen)
JD Drew has been a steady performer as a member of the Red Sox (.279/.392/.522 in 2009). JD has recorded 30 doubles or more in 3 of his last 4 seasons; 2008 was the only year he did not do it when he had 23 in 109 games. Drew has posted an OPS over .900 the last two seasons. The speed JD showed off in his early 20s has disappeared, but his ability to draw walks has consistently gotten better; his BABIP has been steadily in the .300s. JD's Isolated power has increased each of his three Red Sox seasons, however he has also started to hit a lot more fly balls. He also put up a significant home/road split:

Fenway: .298/.419/.572
Road: .262/.367/.477

So expect a few more of those fly balls to continually turn into outs. JD is about to hit that point of his career when the decline begins, but it might not be quick . JD can put together maybe two more top flight seasons and will probably end up with somewhere near 1,500 hits for his career. He will be a useful outfield option in fantasy for home runs and average for 2010.

One player who might not be as useful for 2010 is Stephen Drew. Stephen (.261/.320/.428) may have shown who he really is in 2009. Even though he recorded a second straight double-digit triples season, he would have struck out over 100 times if not for missing over 25 games. His BABIP went from .326 to .293; that combined with an already low walk rate and a 16.3% strikeout rate hurt his chances at another 20 HR season.

Now, looking at these numbers, you might not think a player with 20 HR potential and no speed is a leadoff hitter. However, Stephen hit his best at the leadoff spot at a .301/.352/.541 clip with 7 HR and 25 RBI. He is a career .283/.338/.476 in the leadoff spot with 19 HR, 41 doubles and 12 triples. For a player who has not stolen more than 5 bases in a pro season, he is an unusual source of triples. However double digit triples in two of his three full pro seasons might suggest otherwise. Drew was unable to turn his crazy doubles number in 2008 (44) into more home runs.

It has gone to the point where trade speculation has began to hover over Stephen. Arizona Republic reporter Nick Piecoro said on his blog:

here’s what team officials are saying: This idea hasn’t been discussed and seems very unlikely to happen. They wouldn’t rule it out -- they talk about all kinds of ideas involving just about everyone -- but consider Drew among the most difficult to envision being traded.

Piecoro makes a good point in the post: Drew did rank 10th in OPS among shortstops. That might say more about the depth of shortstop than anything else. I think Stephen Drew will rebound, but how much he rebounds is tough to see. I could live with a bump in the BABIP, which could lead to about a .270 avg, somewhere around 18-23 HR and 65-70 RBI as a step forward into his further prime years. He will hit the illustrious age-27 season in 2010 and should be a useful middle option in standard leagues and a shortstop option in deep leagues.

Aybars (Willy/Erick)
Willy Aybar has made the turn from Dodger prospect retread to legit bench option for the Tampa Bay Rays. Willy has hit .253 in 2008 and 2009 in over 300 PAs each year. He has shown doubles and home run power, knocking double digit home runs each of the last two seasons. He is in the unfortunate spot of being blocked at the corners by Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena when they are not injured.

Willy might have turned in the same numbers, but his second half (.234/.293/.372) was much worse than his first half (.272/.365/.457). While his BABIP increased in 2009 frm .267 to .274, his strikeout rate increased just under 5 percent to 18.2%. which made his OBP only go up by 4 points. Willy will only be a deep league option next year as he enters his age-27 season.

While Willy had a poor second half, his brother Erick Aybar used the second half to get on fire. Erick went .328/.370/.437 in the second half with 6 triples and an .807 OPS. That included a July of .414/.446/.563 with 2 triples, 6 doubles and 18 RBI.

Erick has never hit for power, and it would be unfair to think that his career high in doubles (23) would translate into more home runs (5 this year). Erick's value comes from his steals: he stole 14 bases in 2009, which was double his 2008 total.

For all his attributes, Erick does have a 5.6% walk rate, though that increased by more than 1% from 2008. One other issue is he might have a hard time replicating a .342 BABIP, which increased 30 points from 2008. He started to hit a few more fly balls this year but also hit more line drives than ever in his career. Expect to see more of the same as Erick enters his age-27 season. He should be good for around 10 triples, so in a league where triples count Erick can be a crucial player. Erick has a 64% success rate in stolen bases and expect more of the same from that rate too. If he increased his stolen base output, there is a chance he could be as valuable as the speedy outfielders like Nyjer Morgan and Denard Span.

Duncans (Chris/Shelley)
After both making impressions but never lasting as pro players, they might need their father, current but maybe outgoing St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, to lobby the next organization he joins to take them on.

When not claiming Fantasy Baseball expertise, Ryan writes about Mid-Major College Basketball at SienaSaintsBlog.com.

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