Cheap in 2010

Since June 1st a certain player has the following line;

58/26/76/0/.266

Projected out to a full season that line would be about;

87/39/114/0/.266

That's about third round value in a standard twelve team league. Who is this player? David Ortiz. Is he going to go in the third round of drafts next year? Not a chance. Should he go in the third round? Again, not a chance. He leads the MLB in Lucky Homers according to Hittracker and we all know that he's just not the Big Papi of '05-'07 anymore.

Is he going to be cheap in 2010, though? I think it's reasonable to project Ortiz as an 85/30/100/0/.270 hitter next year - he'll always get a few extra lucky HR playing in Fenway and he'll probably be hitting fifth or sixth in a potent Red Sox lineup. That line is good for about 7th or 8th round value. I think people will still be too gun shy to take him that early so if you target him in the tenth round or so you could have a good buy low opportunity. Even if you don't love Ortiz it's nice to have a few power guys and a few speedsters on your radar so that you can adapt your mid-draft strategy based on how the early rounds went.

Related Posts :