His ERA has barely moved at any level going from 1.46 last year in A ball to 1.48 in High A this year. When he moved to Double-A this year he barely went anywhere with a 1.90 ERA so far. The concern is his pitching skills have dropped quickly so far this year.
In 2008 his K/9 was a solid 10.42 and a elite walk rate of 1.33. Sure that 7.81 K/BB was exciting, but weighted by the level of competition. This year it has dropped to 5.75 in A+ and then 2.60 in Double-A. Not only has his K/9 dropped to 6.59, but the walk rate is also climbing at 2.54.
He has 71 IP at Double-A now so the ratios are getting quite solid. He just turned 20 years old and has plenty of time to mature, but a rush to the majors right now might not be what he needs. The 1.90 ERA is sure to be teasing the Giants front office and for sure their fan base.
His FIP in Double-A so far is 3.40, but his HR/9 of 0.51 looks low for a pitcher with only a 41% groundball rate. His FIP might even be higher based on that.
I still like him and want to watch his next 100 IP to see what is possible, but I am looking much closer now. He has yet to top 5 strikeouts in a game since 5/23 and would be well served to finish 2009 in Double-A.
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2 comments:
Thank you for pointing out what I was wondering/thinking. He seems to have run out of steam a bit in AA and is probably overhyped at the moment. The walk rate isn't bad, but the strikeouts are down, and his FIP as it stands today is (I think) 3.67.
Seems like a candidate to repeat AA next spring. I wouldn't be surprised though to see a Sept callup.
It shouldn't hurt his development, but he just isn't ready yet.
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