This week I got asked by a reader what were my thoughts on Bobby Abreu and his chances to make the Hall of Fame. This seemed like a silly one, but as I looked through the numbers I started to wonder could he get there?I think he is really a border line still, but what happens over the next few years could change that. He is one of those who isn't going to have any one stat to get the recognition, but an all around type resume. 2068 hits, 250 HRs, 342 SBs, .900 OPS
All of this is fairly average, but looking at some comparative stats we can see he fits in. His OPS+ currently stands at 133 which has him in a tie for 120th all time. A quick look and you can see he has a similar track to Roberto Clemente. Understanding fully that his defense is no where near that of Clemente.
Looking at wOBA he comes in at 121 all time, but is limited by two factors. He has yet to reach any major statistical level and he has little recognition come awards. The players behind him in OPS+ or wOBA mostly have completed some level of accomplishment like 3000 hits. Abreu has almost 1000 hits to go and at 35 years old he needs to play at his current level for at least 6 more years.
At this point it is to late to work on the awards. He has never come closer than 14 in the MVP voting and has only 2 All Star appearances. He did get 1 Gold Glove, but his defense has been league average at best. His career UZR/150 is -5.7 going back to 2002.
I don't think Abreu has the numbers to get in right now. Even if he happens to reach 3000 hits I expect the wOBA and OPS+ will fall in the next 6 years. This likely drops him to a solid very good player, but not one of the great.
2 comments:
I'll admit it, I'm the one who put forward the idea that Abreu should maybe be considered for the HoF, certainly a crazy sounding idea on the surface but the more I look into it the more I like Abreu.
First of all, the OPS+ and wOBA numbers for Abreu are really border-line elite even though OPS+ is skewed towards Slugging and neither OPS+ not wOBA factors in stolen bases. While Abreu is no Ricky Henderson on the base paths he should get some credit for his speed.
He should also get some credit for his durability. Bobby Abreu is averaging 156 games a year since his third season in the big leagues and he's an absolute hit machine. Only thirty players in history have as many hits in as many plate appearances or fewer.
If you take a look at guys who will retire from about 2002 to 2015 there should be about fifteen to twenty HoF hitters. After a ton of looking at stats online I'd put Abreu in the top twenty-five hitters during that time, on the bubble in other words. And I'd be happy to discuss Abreu head-to-head against any list of potential HoFers people would want to put up.
While many people believe Abreu will not make it to the Hall, I on the other hand do, and here is why:
There are only 50 players in major league history with 500 or more doubles, Abreu is 17 short. There are only 20 players in the history of baseball in the 250/250 club, Abreu being one. There have been fifty two 30-30 seasons by 32 different players, Abreu has two.
Abreu is one of only six players in major league history with 250 home runs, 2,000 hits, 1,000 runs, 1,000 runs batted in, 1,000 walks and 300 stolen bases. The others are Barry Bonds, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, Rickey Henderson and Willie Mays. Mays, Morgan and Henderson are in baseball's Hall of Fame; Bonds and Biggio had Hall of Fame-caliber careers but are not yet eligible for induction.
He just reached 100+ runs batted in for the 7th consecutive year.Only 12 players have reached 8 consecutive seasons and 4 are linked to performance enhancing drugs:
1 Lou Gehrig
2 Jimmie Foxx
3 Al Simmons
4 Alex Rodriguez
5 Rafael Palmeiro
6 Manny Ramirez
7 Sammy Sosa
8 Albert Pujols
9 Babe Ruth
10 Mel Ott
11 Willie Mays
12 Frank Thomas
In the history of major league baseball 263 players have reached the 1000 rbi milestone and 301 have reached the 1000 run milestone. Abreu has already achieved both and is 250 runs and 325rbis short of becoming just the 15th player with 1500 runs and 1500 rbis.
If he retired today he would be top 45 all time in on base percentage. Additionally, with one more double Bobby Abreau will have 11 straight seasons with 30 or more doubles. Only 4 players on the top 20 career doubles list have reached this feat; Joe Medwick 11 seasons, Honus Wagner 12 seasons, Tris speaker 12 seasons, and Stan Musial 16 seasons, all four are hall of famers.And, unless my research is incorrect he is the only player to ever reach 30HR, 40SB, 402B, 100 BB, 100RBI, and 100R in one season. So you tell me, is he hall of fame bound?
Post a Comment