Chicago and US Cellular Field could have been the worst destination for Jake Peavy to go to in my opinion. Sure there is Coors Field (still in the NL), Yankees Stadium (almost 100 more runs scored) or Citizen's Bank Park(NL and 50+ runs). None of these have all the downsides of the White Sox. Peavy now has to call his home park a hitters park for the first time and no longer can boost his K/9 against the other pitcher.I'm not saying Peavy will be a bust in Chicago, but let's be honest. With an addition of 4-5 homers per season, based on an increase from a HR/FB of ~9% to ~11%, will hurt him. Those 4-5 homers will add a minimum of 0.25 runs to his ERA/FIP.
Next we should look at the switch from the NL to the AL. His K/BB has been elite since 2004 staying over 3 every season except 2008. Looking at his splits in interleague play he even has a better K/BB in interleague games than his career rate, but that would include home games with AL pitchers batting.
His career FIP stands at 3.47 up from his career ERA of 3.21, which is very close to the change of 0.25 I suggested with the additional home runs. As a 3.50 ERA pitcher he still has the chance to be a top pitcher, but he is no longer on of the best.
An interesting comparison is the former White Sox pitcher Javier Vazquez who is #12 on Peavy's comparables list according to PECOTA. Sure Vazquez has consistently underperformed his FIP, but he has pitched in stadiums that favored batters almost his whole career.
This season Vazquez has seen a move to a better park and have his HR/9 drop from consistently over 1 and as high as 1.50 in NY to 0.77 this season. Peavy has a career 0.90 and has been as low as 0.52. Vazquez had other problems to keep his ERA over his FIP, but Peavy should expect a rise in ERA for sure.
Peavy has shown an ability to raise his LOB%, which is a weakness for Vazquez. This will keep Peavy ahead of his FIP, but will he be worth the $52 million left on his deal. He also has a $22 million dollar option that needs a $4 million buyout. If you look at this THT model of trade analysis you can see Adam Gutteridge thinks this was the worst trade of the deadline by far.
From a fantasy perspective Peavy becomes a middle of the pack talent. His name will still hold value, but likely gets overvalue in drafts much like Matt Holliday did when moving to Oakland. For the rest of this year Peavy is hoping to be back at the end of the month. The small sample size in September could lead to his value changing a lot based on how he does.
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