Ok, maybe managers are thinking that he's too old to be effective but he's only in his late thirties and plenty of pitchers have done well at that age. Maybe managers are thinking that he's declined too much to be useful but only his '08, injury shortened 5.18 FIP season really supports that hypothesis. Maybe managers are thinking that they'll wait a few more games and see how Pedro is doing and that thought leads me to what I think is the biggest reason that managers are avoiding Pedro; they want to avoid making a bad move more than they care about making a good move.
As Ryan pointed out in his Trading Manifesto: Rules of the Trade post many managers fail to pull the trigger on a deal because they don't want to be the one who comes out on the short end of the deal. The same thing can be true about free agents which is why Pedro Martinez, the same pitcher who has a career K/9 or 10.08, the same pitcher who has a career FIP of 2.89, the same pitcher whose fastball this year is closer in velocity (88.8mph) to that of his Red Sox years than that of his Mets years is currently withering on the vine in most leagues. Sure, Pedro could be a stinker for the rest of the year but the risk outweighs the reward in all but the most shallow leagues. Especially this late in the season most teams need a big boost to make up ground so unless your team is comfortably ensconced near the top of the league this is the time you should court risky, high upside players.
As a manager you need to ask yourself two questions. Are you happy with where your team is headed right now? And is there really any other starting pitcher on your league waiver wire with the upside of Pedro?
Welcome to Roto Savants. I like the Pedro idea. Gonna pick him up in my league... But if he fails I'm never reading your crap again.
ReplyDeleteHa, ha, thanks for the welcome, though, bro.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is Pedro gets shelled, similar to last year with the Mets. But you do make a good point that if your team is going nowhere, he might be worth the risk due to his upside potential.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Ben, '08 was certainly a scary year for Pedro owners but he's shown signs in '09, albeit in an extremely small sample size, of a comeback. I'm hoping that his increased fastball velocity and three extra months of rest is a sign that he's taking the Roger Clemens approach to his later years and that he's focusing on putting up a strong partial season rather than a sub-par full season.
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