The contract is not pretty, but Alex Rios is still a 20/20 guy and that makes him still a top outfielder in fantasy. The Blue Jays knew that Rios was currently worth his contract being a 3-5.5 WAR player the past 3 seasons, but the end of the 6 years left on his deal would become a problem. Does the move to Chicago change anything about what we should expect?His power should stay fairly consistent as both The Rogers Centre and US Cellular are top 10 in HR park factors and fairly close in 3 year average. His power numbers have fluctuated over the past 4 years with changes in his FB%, but he seems to have settled at a 40% flyball rate with a 9% HR/FB rate. This makes him a solid bet in Chicago to finish at 20 homers this year and for the next few years as well.
Of concern and probably a big reason JP Riccardi was so eager to get rid of Rios was his SLG and ISO have fallen for 4 straight years. So while he is still in the 20 homer range his overall extra base power is in decline. This could be due to many factors, but this has to be a concern going forward.
His speed is still clearly an asset as he is on his way to 26 using the ZiPs updated projection, but could even approach 30 steals this season. A big problem here is his OBP has been dreadful this year and he was never a very good on base guy to begin with. His career OBP is .335 and that has dragged down his steal and run totals during his career.
The White Sox get an outfielder who is worth 12-13 runs using UZR/150 and that certainly helps his real value, but for fantasy he is a solid player with 5 category skills. He won't be much more than that even in US cellular field.
Here's my thought that I haven't noticed others talking about. The Jays want to dump his contract, and this year everyone is salaray sensitive. But was this considered a bad contract money-wise, even last year? Sure, this year the economy is in the toilet, but what happens when spending bounces back, perhaps as soon as 2010? Will it seem like such a bad expense then?
ReplyDeleteIt's not a horrible contract, but it's loooong. 6 year from now Rios is a long shot to be worth the money each year. I like Rios and he will help the White Sox in CF, but contract freedom helps the Jays who have some spots to fill next year like SS with Scutaro becoming a FA.
ReplyDeleteI see what you're saying about the length. I can agree with that wholeheartedly. After all, as a Cubs fan, I'm not looking forward to the twilight years of Soriano's contract...
ReplyDeleteI just hate people who seem to have a one-season memory. Some article mentioned that his salary could be used to buy three good free agents prior to this season, but no one EXPECTED that market; even people signed at the beginning of the offseason had "bad" contracts compared to people like Abreu. I think the Sox are taking a bit more criticism than is necessary, especially because while Rios is struggling this year, he still has skills. What's the old saying? "Once you show you have the skills, you own them forever." I don't think he'll be the 30/40 guy everyone hoped for, but 20+ HR and SB is darned nice to have.