There are inherent concerns and risks associated with Pavano like with all other pitchers. Obviously prior injuries seem to plant a giant red flag on Pavano’s shoulder, but the reward could be worth the risk. Pavano’s 5.13 ERA is misleading. His FIP is a crisp 3.59; xFIP is 3.92; tRA is 4.33; and tRA* 4.49 (and remember, tRA is based on the RA scale, not ERA, so when you scale it to ERA those numbers are more like ~3.6-4.2). In words: he’s pitching quite well.
We can also look at his PAxFIP which says he stands at 3.71. We all know he has been unlucky, but there is also something to be said for his teammates so far. The Indians currently have the 7 worst defense according to UZR/150. Moving Mark Derosa should help as his defense at third base was really hurting, but the team doesn't have a lot of defensive stars.Of course poor defense leads to pitchers having elevated BABIP. Pavano's currently stands at .340 and has been hurting him all season. He also has a poor LOB%, but that results from a high BABIP as well as luck.
If Pavano sticks with the Indians I can see him finishing with an ERA around 5.00, but if he can move to a better defensive team he makes a solid sleeper for the final Fantasy run. A team that would be good to give him a shot is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have been 9 so far this season in team UZR/150. His HR/FB would go up and so would his PAxFIP, but it would be a chance for more wins and a normalized BABIP.
Pavano is not Roy Halladay, but he also won't cost the talent of a Halladay trade either. In terms of WAR Halladay is a consistent 6 WAR pitcher. Pavano has hit a WAR of 4 only in 2003, but is on pace to do that again this year. Pavano supplies 1-2 less WAR in the rest of the season for a extremely smaller cost in talent.
