It's time for another round of trade analysis. These trades were made in a 6x6 Roto keeper league, with the sixth categories being OBP and Holds. The keeper system is a contract setup for five players. I desperately needed power in this league, while my pitching stats were all in the top third (with the exception of saves, in the top half).
Mid-May: Give Garza/Dotel, Get Zimmerman/Scot Shields
I knew that Garza was solid, but I had what I thought was a solid rotation, with guys like Vazquez, Peavy, Harden, Joba, and Volstad. Dotel was a good RP option with holds as a category, especially because he’s striking out hitters again.
I bought high on Zimmerman, but I thought this would finally be his year and he’d turn the hot streak into a breakout. He has given me decent production (31 R, 6 HR, 26 RBI), but it’s not what he was doing before, and his AVG and OBP are dismal. Although Scot Shields was having injury issues, I thought I could buy low on him. After all, he’s led the AL in holds for several years running. Turns out he went on the DL within 10 days of the trade, and as we know now, he’s out for the season. This trade has burned me so far, but with a good second half from Zimmerman, I’ll be happy with the outcome. I wouldn’t have kept Garza over my other SP options, but I’d consider keeping Zimm.
Late May: Give Figgins/Span/Wuertz, Get Dunn/Street
I traded away my speed in exchange for a boost in HR and the one pitching category I was lacking in. At this point, I still thought I could make a run at second place by boosting my HR.
I was worried about Span’s playing time with Cuddyer doing okay, and as it turns out Span hasn’t been much of a factor since the trade. Figgins, on the other hand, has still been going strong. But I had Figgins under an expiring contract, and I wouldn’t have renewed it, so it was a good time to deal him. Wuertz is a capable reliever who can pick up holds and a few saves, but I can always find decent RP in the FA pool, so I had no reservations about trading him.
Although I’m missing the speed and runs from Figgins, Dunn’s actually been good to me so far, hitting 4 HR since I obtained him with a very good AVG for him (.283). I’d like to see a bit more in the R and HR categories, but I can’t really complain. What’s really made this trade for me is Street, who’s been on fire since I acquired him, giving me 12 S, 2.12 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP. Even if Street is traded and isn’t the closer on his new team, holds count in this league, so he still has great value. The saves boost moved me from about fifth in saves to third, and I’m only 2 behind second.
Early July: Give Fielder/Alexei Ramirez/Bell/Vazquez/Peavy, Get Reyes/Votto/Gallardo/Barmes/K. Wood
This trade was just processed. Despite my earlier moves, I couldn’t gain the ground I needed on offense. Before the first two trades, I was in the bottom half in all offensive categories except for SB. At the point of this trade, all that had changed was my dropping points in SB due to losing Figgins, so now that’s in the bottom half too! I decided to give up on this year and take a big gamble on rebuilding for 2010. This trade analysis is going to take a while to go through, with so many players involved. Here we go.
Losing Fielder hurts. I actually had him as my franchise player, meaning I could keep him for as long as I wanted. So this hurts a lot. But I’m not positive he’ll go back to 40+ HR consistently, and that’s why I chose him as my franchise player. He could keep this pace up all season, or he could slow down a bit and have a second half more like 2008’s stats than 2007’s. He’s still a great fantasy player, though, so no matter how I spin it, I’m taking a hit here.
I traded away two other contract players, Alexei and Peavy. Alexei’s contract ends this year. I also have Markakis, and his contract also expires this year; I can only re-sign one player per year, so I chose Markakis, meaning Alexei could be traded. As for Peavy, next year he’ll probably be pitching for someone else, meaning no more of Petco’s pitcher-friendly ERA; with his injury I thought it was worth moving him before he lost any more value.
Bell and Vazquez are having great fantasy seasons, but because I’m rebuilding for next year and I wouldn’t keep them, I moved them.
Now for my return investment. Jose Reyes has been the second best SS, behind only Hanley. The leg injury is worrisome and could affect his SB total this year, but he should be okay by next year, and I could rake in 50+ SB in the coming years. I’m considering him for my franchise position, where I can keep him for as long as I want.
The other competition for replacing Fielder’s franchise status is the 1B I traded for, Joey Votto. Before he went down he was on pace for 35-40 HR, and with enough AB and good health, he could still reach 30 this year. The Reds can produce R and RBI for him, especially in their home park, and he hits for good AVG and has a good OBP. To top it off, he’s capable of 10 SB in a season, a rarity at 1B. Consider him a clone of Derrek Lee when he was in his prime. I’m expecting big things from him in the next few years.
Gallardo is a great addition to my staff. I’m trading away Vazquez, who’s older and less keeper worthy, but I got Gallardo in return, and I’ll probably keep him to replace Peavy as my ace.
Barmes is a needed piece because I don’t have anyone to play SS after Alexei was traded, and Reyes isn’t off the DL yet. Kerry Wood was simply to get some saves in return for giving up Bell. They’re simply extra pieces that won’t be rostered after 2009, but they could help me a bit in the second half.
When all is said and done, I went from these keeper options:
Fielder, Peavy, Zimmerman, re-sign Markakis OR Alexei, and sign one of Pence or Dunn
To these keepers:
Reyes, Votto, Gallardo, Markakis, and Zimmerman
I know losing Fielder hurts, but I think I upgraded my SP, I secured a top-3 SS, I got another great (and young) 1B, and I upgraded my fifth keeper slot. With this year a lost cause, I’m now aiming for 2010, and the trade helped me for the future.
