Sure Tommy Hanson has looked good so far with an ERA of 2.25 in 36.0 IP, but there are some warning signs that he is not ready yet and going to be struggling before the year is out. He still has a good pedigree and , but before you trust your 2009 season to him you should be aware he can't keep this up.Hanson has been an elite strikeout pitcher in the minors, which have helped to compensate for his higher walk rate. He had a 12.21 K/9 in Triple-A before his call up and a 5.29 K/BB. This all looked good and showed he was ready for the next step.
So far though the hitters are not fooled by his stuff and he has only had a 5.29 K/9 in 36 IP. That is a huge fall from his 10-12 K/9 in the minors and with 154 batters faced his K/9 should be pretty stable. I'm sure he has more work to do to establish his pitches, but most pitchers only struggle with their walk rates when they reach the majors. Hanson also has a 4.50 BB/9, but I remain more concerned about the huge drop in K/9.
He has yet to strikeout more than 5 hitters in one game and has 4 games with as many if not more walks than strikeouts. His ERA has been so low though with plenty of luck. His BABIP is currently at .227 and an LOB% of 89.4%. This would make his FIP 4.87, but with a HR/F of 9.4% his xFIP is 5.47.
In keeper leagues his long term value is still high as many pitchers struggle early, but in one year leagues I would move him with such great value right now. Pitchers just can't control these numbers and he will soon regress to the mean.
Keep an eye out for any increase in strikeouts, but I don't think he will be similar to a Jered Weaver from 2006. Weaver had a K/BB of 3.18 that season in 123 IP and was truly a dominant pitcher. Counting on rookies is always dangerous and could quickly damage your season. I would pass on Hanson in single season leagues for now.
