Cubs fans vote to waive Carlos Zambrano

In a poll taken after a Phil Rodgers article on June 29, 2009 the fans voted 55.4% to waive Carlos Zambrano. I don't think waiving him made any sense, but a trade sure might. Carlos Zambrano is a pitcher that has thrived on a skill at BABIP control or at least that is what it looks like. His BABIP in his career is .278 and has effectively kept his career ERA (3.48) nearly 50 points lower than his career FIP (3.96).

This "skill" though appears to be part of the Cubs defense and possibly Wrigley Field. The team has had above league average UZR/150 over the past 4 years and since 2006 have had team pitching BABIP of .297, .291, .293, .287. Obviously there is a team factor keeping the pitchers lines better than their actual skill.

So far in 2009 though Zambrano has a BABIP of .301 and the team UZR/150 of -0.2, which is league average and not as good as previous years. Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano have been butchers so far this year in LF and RF with a combined UZR of -12.0. The team BABIP this year of .287 still has some luck and will regress as well, but Zambrano is already at .301 so how is he still beating his FIP?

Zambrano this year has had to rely on a dip in HR/FB against. His career rate is 9.1% and the Cubs team has a 10.33% rate using a 4 year weighted average. This gives him a xFIP of 4.52 and a PAxFIP of 4.44 going forward this year.

Would the Cubs be smart to trade Zambrano though? The request to Waive him is a horrible idea as he still has a good ERA to get value from him and he has 3 years and $62.25 million due to him. Unless the Cubs defense picks up and helps lower his BABIP his ERA will be over 4 going forward as his HR/FB regresses to the mean.

Zambrano continues to be tough to project, but he requires a solid defense to make up for his limited ability in K/BB. The Cubs might be smart to move Zambrano this year unless they can make some solid moves to sure up the defense next year.