When looking through the PAxFIP numbers I found the first pitcher with a much better PAxFIP than FIP or xFIP was Brett Anderson. This will be the true test of PAxFIP and how strong the team/park averages will regress pitchers to this number.
The Oakland Athletics have a 9.1% HR/FB this season as a team and we know the park effects in Oakland will decrease homers. Currently Anderson holds a HR/FB of 11.6%, which is above the league average right now. This has his ERA at 4.25, FIP at 4.23 and xFIP at 4.20. Taking the team HR/FB though we see his PAxFIP stands at 3.85. You also have a DIPS of 4.27, so there seems to be a consensus against PAxFIP.
Anderson has good control numbers so far with a K/BB of 2.80 although his K/9 is down from the levels he had in the minors, but without many innings at Double-A and none at Triple-A this is expected. Not many rookies start with such consistent rates at BB/9.
Even if his ERA comes down to the 3.85 rate that won't necessarily make PAxFIP more accurate since his K/BB could improve and change his numbers. We'll have to look back later in the year and see what has happened with this case as well as others we will look at later.
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