Thursday, June 18

Numbers to Keep in Mind

When looking at your rank remember to keep in mind players you have who have been extremely lucky. Lets look over the leaders in BABIP for hitters and pitchers and should you think about moving them.

Hitters over .380
David Wright
Kevin Youkilis
Brad Hawpe
Mat Kemp
Mark Reynolds
Asdrubal Cabrera
Justin Upton

If you have several of these players you should be a bit concerned about your batting average for the second half of the season. Don't expect them to lose 100 points from their average, but there will be a drop in their average. Even the best hitters are around .360 by the end of a full season. David Wright is going to have the biggest drop as his BABIP stands at .476 and will drop significantly. Unless the power returns his average will drop soon.

Pitchers under .260
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Johnny Cueto
Yovani Gallardo
Kevin Millwood
Matt Garza
Ted Lilly
CC Sabathia

All of these pitchers are using their low BABIP to have an ERA that beats their FIP. Both Kevin Millwood and Matt Garza though could be poor pitchers once their BABIP normalizes. The rest still have a FIP in the 3's and should be strong even with a jump in BABIP.

A word of caution is that having a high or low BABIP for one half of the season does not mean they will have an equally high or low BABIP in the second half. The odds stand that your BABIP will likely be at a normal number in the second half. Example - Dan Haren has a BABIP of .229 so far this season. You should not expect a BABIP of .370+ the rest of the season. It is possible, but the expectation should be his BABIP is around .300 for the rest of the season. So when you look at these players don't make judgements on how bad they could be with a poor BABIP, but what they would be with a normalized BABIP.