Miami Herald Should Stay Out of Baseball Projection

There is an article up at the Miami Herald by William Alton. Somehow he has made the great projection that Jake Fox is the next Kevin Youkilis and should be playing to make the Cubs better. What does the analysis look like?

The way Fox sees it, the Cubs look at him like he's short, fat and fighting
against a little athleticism. The way I see it, Fox might be the second coming
of Kevin Youkilis.

So just because he is a former catcher and isn't athletic or fast he is the next Kevin Youkilis. The only other thing he discusses is that Fox has had a .293 batting average in 7 minor league seasons. Let's see what the comparison of Fox to Youkilis actually says.

Fox has plenty of minor league data and until 2008 had never posted a walk rate over 10%. He did cross 10% in AA that year, but no projection expects him to cross that in the majors. Youkilis on the other hand was consistently above 15% and his minor league total BB% was 18%. That is a considerable jump from Fox who has a 7% minor league rate.

The strikeout rate is also different although not as big. Fox has a minor league rate of 19.6% and Youkilis was out 15%. This would explain why Youkilis had a minor league OBP of .442 and Fox was only .355. So the basis of this comparison would be his body shape only?

I will give Fox an advantage in power as his minor league slugging was .528 to Youkilis who had only .440. Looking at PECOTA they have a sad looking list of comparables and in their 2008 comments had Ryan Garko as a possible comparison at best. They thought he would be a left masher or good pinch hitter in the long run based mainly on his power.