If you were around for some of my rants last year then you know I am not a fan of Homer Bailey. His numbers have never been anything impressive over Single-A ball and the strikeout rate dropped from 10 to the 7's. In the majors he has an average K/9 of 5.13 in 86 IP. None of this leads me to believe he will be successful, but his 2009 season at Triple-A has been much better than previous tries.Previous years at Triple-A his K/9 peaked at 7.89, but he is currently holding a 8.23 so far this year. That increase is not very impressive, but his control of the walks has been much more so. He has had a BB/9 of 4.28 in 2007 and 3.72 in 2008 both at Triple-A. This year though his BB/9 is down to a solid, but not spectacular, 2.71. This pushes his K/BB to 3.06 and with a consistently solid GB% around 45% he has been solid to a FIP of 3.86 and his ERA of 2.71.
I expect more growing pains when he reaches the majors, but perhaps this time he can put enough together to stick and hold a respectable ERA at least in the 4's, which is much better than his current ERA in the majors of 7.01.
If Bailey can't put together a K/BB around 2.00 than I would think his days are number as a potential prospect. This really is his last chance. If he is available you could take a flyer before Saturday, but playing Cleveland might be tough for him. They have the sixth ranked offense using wOBA and a very good eye with a team walk rate of 10.3%
