RotoSavants

Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres

Adrian Gonzalez has popped 24 homers already this year and looks like a sure thing to top the 36 he totaled last year. Many assumed he couldn't repeat playing in Pecota, but he has proven them wrong so far. This season he is on pace to top 50 homers, but is only limited by his team, which has him barely on pace to top 100 runs and RBIs.

There are many other improvements to his game that have gone largely unnoticed. His skills have grown significantly each season and this is by far his best.

His walk rate has increased slightly each season before 2009, but in 2009 it has jumped to a league best 19.7%. This is better than even Adam Dunn and Albert Pujols. His career rate stands at 10.4%, but it has been 311 PA and has been above 15% for most of the season. He also has 10 IBB, which are not included in BB%.

While his walk rate has spiked his strikeout rate has steady and is even slightly below career levels. If not for the low BABIP at .253 he would easily be hitting over .300 and have an OBP around .450.

Where will his power settle is the big question. He has gone from 11-16% HR/F in Texas and SD from 2005-2007, but jumped to 23% in 2008 and many thought this was above his skill in Petco Park. This year he currently holds a 32.5% HR/F, which is far ahead of the next hitter Mark Reynolds at 26.9%.

Even if he slows down some he is on target to easily surpass his 2008 season and should be more valuable with an increased OBP. It's scary to think he could even hit more homers if he was traded to a better park at the trade deadline.

He would easily be a first round pick in 2010 if he continues this for the rest of the year. If he was moved to a hitters park he would challenge a top 3 pick consideration. If you are in a keeper league and hold Gonzalez then you have to expect first round talent to move him. I wouldn't move him unless you really got a top talent back for him.