Wrist injuries are always a concern and one of the reasons I missed out on Carlos Quentin in my leagues this year. Power can quickly disappear and an easy case is the rise and fall of Derrek Lee. Our sample size is way to small for Ortiz right now as we say that it takes 300 PA for HR/FB to stabilize, but we can look at some of his other factors to see what is going on.
My first goal would be to look at his bat speed, which would be a clear indicator of decreased power. In this Buster Olney article he says scouts were surprised at the decreased speed, but no specifics on actual speeds. We'll have to try and find other signs that his skills have declined.
Disclaimer: Ortiz only has 114 PA so none of his rates are significant yet.
First up is his contact rate and walk rate, which are both worse from career levels. He is striking out 20% of the time and only walking 11% of the time. For his career he has a 21% K rate and a 13% walk rate. These are only slightly off so a return to career levels would only take a game or two. I don't think this is anything to get to worked up over.
His discipline is a bit more concerning. He is swinging at 50% of pitches up from a 44% career rate and most of that is pitches out of the zone. He is swinging at nearly 30% of pitches out of the zone when he is usually doing that less than 20% of the time. This has not affected his contact rate which is at career levels, but means he is making a lot of extra contact on pitches out of the zone and resulting in poor outcomes. Perhaps this is his attempt to replace Manny Ramirez by hacking more or just the result of small sample size, but it is concerning.
Another stat which is not yet normalized is his batted ball data. His LD% is right at career levels, but his FB% is up over 10% from normal levels. Add this with a 10% jump in infield fly balls and you have a possible problem in his swing. This could be a slight uppercut added to his swing in compensation for a slowed bat to hit for more power.
Overall I am very concerned about Ortiz this season. As we know large 1B/DH types are prone to quick declines as they reach their mid 30's. His stats could easily correct in a few weeks if he is fine, but as he nears 200 PA we will see if there is any chance of him recovering. Ortiz contract ends in 2010 with the Red Sox and the team has a 2011 option for $12.5 million with no buyout.
For fantasy owners who drafted Ortiz as a power option for UTIL they will have to make adjustments. I wouldn't do anything drastic like drop him yet, but a move to the bench and a close eye on his numbers is recommended. If he still has a HR/FB under 10% by June it would be a good idea to move on from Big Papi.
I'm happy to finally see something on Ortiz, but not with the results. LoL I drafted him in two leagues, each league seeing him fall past the 6th or 7th round, and said "why not?"
ReplyDeleteIn one league in particular, my three biggest hitters have all been underperforming, including Ortiz, David Wright, and Lance Berkman. Lee's post tells me Berkman will return, and I have no doubt that Wright will catch up, but Ortiz... I really wasn't a fan of him to begin with. Problem is, as it stands right now, no one will want him for a trade! LoL
It's about time somebody finally recognizes that Ortiz is D-U-N done. I'm a fan, but he hasn't looked right since that wrist injury. I gave him the benefit of the doubt before writing him off, but after a couple weeks of spring training it was obvious to me that he isn't anywhere near the same player he used to be. As a Sox fan, I'm counting my blessings that he's only under contract for one more season.
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