So far this year Corey Hart has looked like his regular self, although his steals are a bit behind normal and his OBP is up, which has raised his projected run totals. As soon as you look at his rates, though, you see there is something completely different about him this year. His BB% and K% are very far off from his normal numbers and look more like a power-hitting, three-outcome type than a power/speed player. He is currently walking at an elevated 12.6% when his career rate has been 6.2%. His K% is way up to 29.9% from a career rate of 20%.
Looking at his career graphs, you can see he has spikes in his walk and strikeout rate early in the year each season, but this spike has been sustained longer this season than any other. Here is his BB% graph and his K% Graph (Look at daily graphs at the bottom). These rates could easily collapse to career rates in the next two weeks, but he does appear to be changing his approach at the plate. He has only swung at 45% of pitches this year, down from a 51% career rate, and that includes pitches in the zone as well as out of the zone.
The question is does a 6% spike in walk rate make up for a 10% spike in his K rate? If these rates hold and his BABIP stabilizes (currently elevated to .369, career .315), he will be a drag on average and his OBP will fall as well. As much as I like an increase in walk rates from players, it is not worth the extra strikeouts unless he is hitting 40+ homers like an Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard. If you own Hart, look for a drop in strikeouts in the next two weeks, or you may want to move him.
