Last Minute Predictions

With the start of the season here, the Savants give some quick hit predictions for players in the upcoming season. We'll be telling you two guys to draft for 2009, and one guy we really like in 2010 (for all of you in keeper leagues).

Corey Dawkins
2009: Elijah Dukes
No one has ever questioned his talent, only his ability to use his talent and stay out of trouble. Call me crazy but I think those days are behind him. 25/25 is well within reach and well within the range of possibility this year with Dunn hitting around him. Dukes increased his OPS last year over 150 points while increasing his OBP significantly. His BABIP was very slightly above normal but his line drive rate increased significantly as well. I think this year he goes 25/25.

2009:Matt Kemp
Kemp will be hitting around Manny and already has 25/25 potential. If he starts to really focus on controlling the zone and hit the pitches that he can handle, I can see Soriano in his prime but with slightly better OBP. The chance of getting him cheap has probably passed, but you can still get him for good value.

2010: Max Scherzer
Scherzer flat out has ace stuff and assuming he can stay healthy, he can give you strikeout rates that approach Liriano pre-Tommy John. The only knock on him was some question about his health as he battled fatigue last year and over the winter. He may be young but he's not as young as people think as he'll turn 25 in July. He's approaching the end of the injury nexus that Will Carroll and others at BaseballProspectus discuss over there. Next year, I think that he'll be released from all innings limitations and he could easily top 200Ks.

Kevin Jebens
2009: Sean Marshall
When he won the fifth starting spot on the Cubs, Sean Marshall became very fantasy relevant. He’s always had decent skills, and looking just at his major league time he’s improved in K/9 and K/BB, with only a slight regression in BB/9 from 2007 to 2008. He’s also done better when in the rotation, as opposed to pitching from the bullpen. The fact that the Cubs are currently a contender means he should have good run support and a chance to with 12+ games over a full season.

2009: Lastings Milledge
He’s not a big sleeper per se, but looking at his ADP, I’d rather have him over some guys taken ahead of him. He just received the nod to be the leadoff hitter for Washington, so his SB numbers will continue to please. He’s also developed some power, so a line of 20/35 could be in his future. Note the increase in SLG and OBP from the first half to the second half. Also note that he matched his SB total from the first half with 80 less AB. His increase of line drive percent will help him maintain a high hit percentage, especially in his spacious home park.

2010: Andrew McCutchen
Here’s one of my favorite keeper options, and he’ll cost less than many others because he’s stuck in Pittsburgh. Those who know about him realize he could be a five-category producer. He’s young, so the power at the big league level isn’t here yet, but his speed is going to tide over owners until he starts hitting 20 HR. The neat thing I found: in the three seasons where he split time between two different levels, he actually improved in AVG, OBP, and SLG at the higher level. He’ll only be 22 during 2009, but come 2010 he could very well be BJ Upton lite.

Troy Patterson
2009: Shin Soo-Choo
He's finally healthy after dealing with different injuries including Tommy John surgery. Last year he showed his skills and he enters 2009 with the full time job in Cleveland. The 14 homers in 317 ABs might have been a bit over his head, but with the time missed we really don't know what he can do in a full season. He also seemed to limit his steals, but has stolen as many as 26 bases in AAA. I am going to say Choo will be a 20/20 player in 2009 with an average greater than .280. He will have more value than Corey Hart this season.

2009: Mark Teahen
This was going to be Dernard Span, but the team has decided to put his development on hold by going to the minors. Teahen on the other hand has been ripping the cover off the ball this spring and although his defense at 2B has been only improving slightly he is forcing the Royals to make a tough choice. If Teahen gets the job at 2B he will supply value of a top 10 second baseman.

2010: Tommy Hanson
Sure Hanson is heading to the minors to start 2009, but he is ready to go. His numbers in the minors are very impressive and he has an elite K/9 ratio. His ratio's are even better than David Price. Hence my prediction that Hanson will be a better pitcher in 2010 and if the Braves realize Tom Glavine is done 2009. Price could win in ERA with the GB%, but Hanson should be fine in Atlanta's pitcher park and collect more strikeouts.

Lee Perrault
2009: Javier Vazquez
Vazquez finally goes back to the NL, where his numbers with the Expos actually matched his K/BB ratios. After many years of hard luck, HR-happy park adjustments, and one really strange outlying year in the Bronx, Vazquez's production will finally match his 3+ career K/BB. High strikeouts, a respectable WHIP, and a mid 3s ERA will reign supreme.

2009: Mark Reynolds
With HR/FB% numbers comparable to Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder and Pat Burrell, Reynolds should easily crack 35 HRs this year. Reynolds just needs to actually put the bat on the ball in the zone, and he's primed for elite production. If he can improve his zone contact levels another 10%, he'll be putting up numbers like Adam Dunn(with a better BA!)--at 3B. Reynolds will end up at 260/355/525, 35HRs and 10SBs

2010: Clay Buchholz
It'll take the Red Sox one more season to finally end the Tim Wakefield love affair in the rotation. Buchholz' mechanics have been reset after the Red Sox foolishly tried to refine them last year. Let's hope they realize that consistency is sometimes just as important as ideal mechanics (see Lincecum, Timothy). Clay should be locked in as the #5 next year, and will be ready for a full year breakout. A 3.7 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 looks about right.