I'm watching a lot of MLB network lately and some of this commentary is really getting to me. This is also the logic used by many teams, which is scary in its own right. If any team is looking at a players hitting line of BA/OBP/SLG and judging who is the best player to pick for a position then they are in trouble. There are some very simple numbers to look at if you are making roster choices, but they are not average, RBIs, ERA, wins, etc.
You want to see if a pitcher is striking out 3 or more batters for every walk. There really isn't enough time to see any improvement of skills, but you want to make sure they are still getting solid ratios. A good example is Dan Haren with an 8.5 K/BB this spring and is ready to go. I wouldn't take this to far, but Gavin Floyd has a 2.50 K/BB so far this spring, Just saying.
Many announcers will watch a player give up 5 runs in 5 innings of work and say he needs to make adjustments to get better, but he had 4 strikeouts and only one walk. These are often a case of tough luck hits against and bad luck. A good case is again Dan Haren, with that amazing K/BB his ERA is 4.40.
As for hitters we want to see good contact rates and a good eye. Power is good, but often against lower level pitchers the power can be deceiving. A good example is Colby Rasmus who appears to be headed for a job coming out of spring (not official yet). His line right now is .280/.368/.451, but he is tied for the spring training lead in strikeouts with 25. He is an extreme case, but the point is that analysts continue to ignore numbers like BABIP and K/BB.
When I read spring stats I look at strikeouts and walks for both pitcher and hitters. I pay attention to SLG, but I take it with a grain of salt.
10 comments:
Great points, Troy. Other things I consider:
Is a pitcher working on a new pitch or two? If so, they won't be as sharp because they'll be throwing an unfamiliar pitch, trying to refine it for the season. If a guy tries a sinker and it keeps not sinking, it'll lead to a lot of HR. That won't translate to the regular season because odds are he'll drop the pitch.
Regarding hitters, the pitching quality is so variable over spring training that I pay nearly no attention to hitters stats. The big news that comes from preseason is injuries and position battles. If Pujols had no HR in ST, would you pass on him in the draft? No.
Along those lines, I know quite a few fantasy managers freak out about the overannouncement of injuries in spring training. It seems that any starting player is kept out of the lineup for any type of injury--especially this year, where the preseason is so long. I've seen panicked add/drops or trades before the season starts because someone's afraid of an announced injury in March. Unless I see the words "will start the season on the DL," I take ST injuries with a grain of salt.
What about deciding between several OFs that you are looking to draft? For example, Jayson Werth or Corey Hart or someone similar you see hitting tons of HRs during spring training right now. ST stats might help nudge you to draft players that are hitting well in spring training as opposed to similar OFs who are not. Before Ryan Howard's first full year he hit something like 13 HRs in ST which and 22 in 88 games the previous season if I remember correctly. I ended up picking him up as my #1 pick in our keeper league. I don't think you read too much into ST stats but I think for me it does help when deciding between several players.
Greg,
Like Troy said, there are simple metrics I stick to. Contact rates and K/BB are easy enough to swear by. But sitll, any sort of analysis in such a small sample size is tricky and can be misleading. Personally, I take everything in spring with a grain of salt unless there's a huge discrepancy.
In a case like this year, someone like Mark Teahen who's slugging 960+ will catch my eye more than the fact that Milton Bradley launched a couple extra homers.
Why did all three of you (excluding Greg, because he doesn't write for the website) use the phrase "grain of salt?" Just wanted to point that out... =D
Out of curiosity, what's your view on using ST stats to gauge a "comeback" player, such as Justin Verlander or Erik Bedard? I've heard they've had generally good springs, but I don't know all their K/BB stats or stuff like that.
Dang it, Mark, you revealed our subliminal-message advertisement for Morton's Salt!
Mark,
Force of habit? :)
To be honest, unless Verlander or Bedard are doing something so eye catching, I tend to write it off. I can't trust a sample size like that unless it's a world-beating performance.
Mark,
In the case of Bedard you just want to see health. He has other issues (K/BB was much lower before a spike in striekouts in 2007). Will he be the Bedard before 2007, during 2007 or the injured 2008?
Verlander is a similar question. He had a spike in strikeouts in 2007 that made him much better, but if they don't come back he walks to many hitters. He wasn't as bad as his ERA was last year, but he still gets to much hype and goes long before I would consider him.
I did hear a study at one point though that if a batter had a SLG 200 points over his career line in ST he was very likely to have a career year. Not sure of the exact numbers, but would be something interesting to run here.
A prime example of too much value placed on spring is washington even contemplating playing Kearns over Dukes. Lets look at the facts. Dukes walks more and only strikes out marginally more than Kearns. Kearns has not had a HR/FB over 10% since leaving the Reds. Both hit a similar number of flyballs, but Dukes can also steal 15-20 bases with an OK success rate.
Dukes has started to press and is now struck out his last 5 ABs, but is still the better player. If they pick Kearns it won't take long once they come North to DC for Dukes to get the job from him though.
Where's the best place to start when it comes to researching sabermetrics?
I'm thinking about a couple videos on the site about how to use these numbers and where to get them. I'll try to have some more info on this after opening day.
Post a Comment