Now that the season’s started, the content of Roto Savants will adapt as well. Instead of the “Draft This, Not That” articles, I’ll be transitioning to some sleeper articles: players you should keep an eye on, or simply go get now from the FA pool.
I love making player comparisons, as the DTNT articles showed. However, some readers were a little skeptical on my use of ADP, especially early in the offseason. Now, however, most drafts are complete, and it’s the first day of the 2009 season. As such, fantasy sites such as Yahoo and ESPN now post the percentage of fantasy teams that own a player, which is like having ADP throughout the year. (I’ve played on CBS as well, and I know they provide own% and start% for starters that in their “Two-Start” section, but if anyone knows where to quickly find own% for all players, please post a link in the comments.)
Jason Kubel is a huge sleeper going into 2009. He has been designated the primary DH for the Twins, and he can play RF if needed, meaning he should have no problem reaching 500+ AB. So why is this good news for fantasy owners who invest in him?
Kubel has the ability to hit for power. He hit 20 HR in 463 AB last season, with a respectable 22 doubles and a .471 SLB. Surprisingly, he also had 5 triples, showing that although he’s not going to steal bases, he’s a good baserunner, so those extra-base hits should keep coming in. Another point I like for his power is that he’s still young enough to develop more.
Looking into this G/L/F ratios, he took a step forward. I love his second-half line drive percent of 24%, which compensated for an abnormally low (for him) first-half 16%. Comparing 2008 to 2007, he reduced the number of groundballs he hit and increased his fly balls, resulting in more HR.
Sure, he may not be a top-20 OF, but he makes a great #3 OF for your fantasy team.
Here’s why he’s such a bargain: he’s almost a guarantee to be available in your league, unless you play with Minnesota fans. He’s owned in just 9% of Yahoo leagues and 6% of ESPN leagues. For a comparison, someone like Raul Ibanez, who’s aging and on the decline despite moving to the Phillies, is owned in 89% of Yahoo leagues and 100% of ESPN leagues.
Compare Ron Shandler’s projections for Kubel and Ibanez:
Kubel: 496 AB, .276/72/21/81
Ibanez: 558 AB, .288/81/23/91
It looks like Ibanez is well ahead of Kubel until you take in the difference in AB. If Kubel is projected with 550 AB, it comes to .276/80/23/90. That’s spot on with Ibanez. Given his youth and growth over last year, there’s a chance he could go even higher, with an outside chance at 30 HR.
Even the most skeptical projections see him reaching 20 HR with 500 AB. Bill James likes him for an AVG over .280, and Shandler says he has upside for .290. Yet he’s going nearly undrafted in two of the largest fantasy providers. Personally, I’ll take a shot at the young up-and-comer as opposed to the veteran who could decline at any time.
1 comments:
As a Twins fan who's seen Kubel over the past few seasons, I can assure you he's legit.
Kubel was hailed as the future of the Twins' offense along with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau before tearing three ligaments in his knee simultaneously (ouch!)
This will be his first completely healthy season with an assured role, and he should make the most of it.
He didn't handle LHP that well last year, but consider the fact that entering the All-Star Break he was hitting just a shade above .100 against LHP. To finish the season with a .232 mark against southpaws actually shows tremendous second-half improvement.
Kubel's power is absolutely tremendous; he doesn't hit cheap home runs. He has titanic upper-deck power, and I really think that if he's given the PT, he has a much better than "outside" shot at 30 home runs.
This will be Jason Kubel's last season where he's coming in undrafted, and probably his last season as a non-Top 100 player.
If you need OF help or some extra pop, add him now. He's 26, he's finally healthy, and he's only going to get better.
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