Will LaRoche Break His First Half Tendencies?

Adam Laroche has been labeled as a second half player, but there appears to be 3 stages in the season for him. He is absolutely horrid in April as his contact rate is abysmal and his skills are nowhere to be found. He then becomes a minimal reserve level player in May and June, but his power is still missing. Then he is a beast in July with a slight tapering in August and September, but still much better than his first half.

I have included his Atlanta numbers in this study, but if you removed these he would look even more extreme in these phases. Perhaps playing in Pittsburgh has something to do with it, but we will look into that later. He also has difficulty with left handed pitchers, but unless he is facing all lefties in April there has to be another explanation.

Month-by-Month

April - .182/.277/.328
There is something going on with LaRoche in Pittsburgh during the month of April. Although he has some struggles in May and June his K% is still around his career rate of 20%. In April he is striking out 31% of the time in a strong sample size of 363 AB’s. It’s difficult to tell what is leading to this, but three years in a row he has followed a similar spike in K% seen here(look at the daily graphs on the bottom). It seems in Atlanta in 2005 he still had a bit of strikeout spike, but it was a much shorter spike. His walk rate is not affected here as it is above his normal 9%, but all of his power numbers are also down.

May/June - .261/.323/.454
Suddenly his contact and walk rates hit career levels and his average hits a normal level for him as he hits around .270, but this is still low as his SLG is slightly below his career level and much below his second half numbers. This is actually the peak time of the year for his contact rate, but without that extra power he falls short of his second half value. This is his range as a replacement hitter and would not be worth a roster spot as a first baseman in fantasy leagues. He would have the value of a Brandon Phillips moved to first base and if he ceased to steal bases.

July - .322/.383/.606
Suddenly LaRoche becomes Albert Pujols and tears the cover off the ball. This is an average of 4.5 seasons, so it isn't a one time thing. In 2008 alone he had a SLG of .805 and led the league for that month. He kept his contact rate solid and his walk rate, but his average took a jump based on the extra power increasing his BABIP to .338. If this was his line in every month he would be a first round pick for sure.

August/September/October - .300/.362/.547
So we have moved past his elite month and entered a solid range where his K% starts to rise a bit, but he is still betting solid power and his BABIP stays increased. A .547 SLG is still an elite number and would provide a 30-35 homerun hitter if he did that all year. By the end of this month he has averaged a solid line and become a usable player and makes a solid choice at CI.



Breaking The Slump

Causes
We can see he has the skills to be a 30+ homer hitter with a line that pushes him to the top of the first basemen, but what goes wrong each season? As I said before the slump became accentuated when he moved to Pittsburgh. Perhaps the weather is a factor, but many early April games are scheduled in warmer locations for just this reason. The other possibility is a change in his offseason conditioning and preparation. There isn't much information on his training, but if the Pirates aren't looking into his offseason workouts then they're are partly to blame.

LaRoche also suffers from Attention Deficit Disorder, but I would expect this is well medicated. It was blamed for the incident in 2006 when he took his time getting to first and didn't notice Nick Johnson had started running and was beaten to first. I strongly doubt that either this or his April struggles are based on his ADD.

2009 and Beyond
First the bad news is so far this spring there isn't anything to get hopeful from. He has a 33% strikeout rate in the few ABs he has. They are trying to get him as many appearances as they can, but I don't know if this is working yet. Maybe he can get enough playing time this spring to shorten the slump if he has one at all. Many times players will struggle at a certain point of the season and get the label of "First Half Player" or "Clutch Hitter", but without a sample size like this for LaRoche I don't buy it. At this point though you have to expect LaRoche is going to struggle in the early going. If you play in a league with only a 1B and no CI you can get LaRoche in a potential bench roll. Once his April is over you can rotate him at 1B or UTIL and make huge gains.