Every season no matter how many draft you do there are always players that never end up on your squad. We decided to look back over mocks and see who each of us has passed on and give our reasoning why we haven't picked that player. Some names probably won't surprise you.
Troy Patterson
1. Josh Hamilton - He is a third round choice at best, but was overvalued by his RBI totals. Those should drop without Milton Bradley in Texas. He would be a good choice if he didn't cost a first/second rounder.
2. Evan Longoria - Another overvalued commodity. He could reach the Bill James projection, but every other projection makes him more of a round 3 pick as well.
3. Dustin Pedroia - I try not to let my Red Sox bias effect my decisions and perhaps I am being down on Pedroia unjustly, but the power and speed seemed to be over his head. Is a second baseman with a possible ceiling of 15/15 and a very good average equal 2nd round value?
4. Derek Jeter - OK, so he goes to early to the Yanks fan in my personal league, but he is in a clear decline. His power has dropped for 4 years in a row and a declining BABIP makes him an average layer across the board.
5. Dice-K - What other way can I mention how little I like him this year. There is a large regression headed his way if he doesn't start pitching to hitters once and awhile instead of nibbling at the corner.
Corey Dawkins
1. Joe Mauer - You guys know how I feel about him
2. Johnny Damon - I think his health will be an issue. All the years of not missing time will take a toll on his body and with all the DH options, it's not easy to get him an extra day off here and there.
3. Adam Jones - The talent is there but he's still too raw. He still can't judge strike zone too well but I can settle with a ton of strikeouts if the power is there. His wasn't there last year but it may come back.
4. Felix Hernandez - Another instance of excellent talent, but has yet to put it together in the big leagues. This could be the year but I want consistency from my pitchers.
5. Cole Hamels - for the reasons listed in my article but also because he threw 70IP more last year than the year before.
Kevin Jebens
1. Ryan Howard - Great HR potential, but I never jump on him over the other high-ranked 1B. I like my first few choices to be guys who can't hurt me in any category (minus SB), and Howard's average could do just that.
2. Jimmy Rollins - Sure, the top SS is only three deep, but a lot of people seem to believe he'll go back to 20-25 HR with his 40 SB, and I have my doubts. I'm not going to take any chances on my first picks. If I don't get Reyes or Ramirez, I wait until the trio of Drew/Hardy/Peralta is going off the board.
3. Ian Kinsler - I never seem to be in a position to take him. Maybe I'm undervaluing him a little, but he's had a few injury problems (500+ AB only once in last three years), and I don't feel like he's established a consistent baseline, partly because of those injuries. Also, if I can't get Chase Utley, I tend to wait on 2B anyway, because I'd rather grab a basher in the second round, where Kinsler goes. I never end up with this potential 25/30 guy on my teams.
4. Any "big" SP - I almost never take the first pitchers off the board, which are usually Johan, Lincecum, Sabathia, Hamels, Halladay, and Webb. I will sometimes reach for Halladay or Webb, but I tend to wait until the second tier of aces start to go, then grab someone like Peavy, Shields, Haren, Kazmir, or Oswalt. I don't feel there's a huge difference between those two groups, aside from one to two rounds of picking.
5. Magglio Ordonez - I really like Mags, but I don't think people realize he's not the great HR hitter he used to be when he was on the White Sox. The strong average and the decent R and RBI are fine, but 20 HR isn't overly special anymore. Yet he still goes before guys like Andre Ethier, who put up similar numbers in 2008, plus he's young and on the rise.
Lee Perrault
1. "Juan Pierre". I put this is quotes because "Juan Pierre" is actually about 5-10 people. Basically, I always shy away from outfielders whose main strength or more precisely, only strength, is speed. This eliminated Pierre, Ellsbury, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, etc etc etc. My thought is that winnings stolen bases by double digits doesn't help you the way winning HRs by double digits does. Stolen bases may marginally increase runs (more likely, OBP does that) but HRs contribute to 3 other categories.
2. Justin Morneau. The only time I drafted Morneau was the year he got beaned. Awesome. My problem with Morneau is his ridiculously inflated ADP. Although he's normally a safe 25/100 bet, he's never been worth his draft position except for the year after he got beaned.
3. "Paps". Another catch-all, I refuse to draft #1 closers. Papelbon, Rivera, K-Rod, Nathan, none of them. I really do not like wasting my 5-8 picks on closers, and prefer to find value in saves, the most turbulent category, later in drafts. Besides, we've all read Troy's analysis on why picking closers early for ratios is in a word, misguided.
4. Kevin Youkilis. MVP talk and A-Rod's injury have been moving Youk even further up the boards, but I've found his production really doesn't match his draft day value. Youk probably won't sniff 30 HRs as more teams are learning the pitch around his power. While his OBP should bounce back into the 400+ range, I think drafting a 280/100/20/80/0 3B in a 5x5 league during the top 50 picks is a stretch.
5. Chien-Ming Wang. Personally, any pitcher who can't sustain a 6+ K/9 is undraftable in my eyes. Wang gets big bonuses for playing on the Yankees, so the manager with the pinstriped glasses thinks he's a lock at 18-20 wins each year. Drafting for wins is stupid. Ask Tim Wakefield how that 2003 Red Sox offense helped him get wins. The Sox scored almost 6(!) runs per game that year, and Wakefield sported a 114 ERA+, only good for 11 Wins. Derek Lowe pitched much more poorly than Wake and got 17 wins. Don't draft wins, and especially when the guy doesn't get any strikeouts either.
What Players have you been passing on this year?
9 comments:
I think Adam Jones is the only one I have drafted from any of our lists. I agree with the assessment, but based on ADP he is worth the shot.
I got him in the 16th round of the RotoSavants league and if he can equal his Baseball Prospectus numbers I will be happy to have him in my UTIL slot. 76/21/75/11/.278
Kevin- How is drafting Jimmy Rollins in the first round a "risk?" I have the 13th pick in round one next weekend and would jump on him if he is there. What's not to like?
@Kevin: I think If I'm picking late in R1, I can talk myself into Rollins.
Normally I don't like taking the "end" of a top tier of guys and would rather just punt the position. However, with the severity of the dropoff at SS, I'd be ok with him as an "end of R1, beginning of R2 pick".
I wouldn't be surprised in the local league Troy, myself, and Corey play in, that our manager picking at 12 does the same thing.
Kevin,
Rollins isn't an awful option. I'm not saying he's going to suck. But his numbers have been a little inconsistent.
Last year his stolen base opportunity percent was five points higher than any of his previous four years. This helps explain why he had so many SB, and my guess is he'll be back to 40 SB, or perhaps high 30s.
Second, I don't like his variable HR totals. He hit 20+ two years in a row, but the two years before he was under 20, and same goes for 2008.
The other small grievance I have is his fluctuating average. It's been .289 or higher for three of the last five years. But it's also been .277 for two of the last three years.
So what are you going to get from him? Will he put everything together at once and go 295/110/25/70/45? Or could he have a bad year across the board and go 275/100/10/50/30?
In the first round, I'm looking for consistency and as much of a guarantee as possible. I feel I don't know what I'm going to get from Rollins. That "bad year" stat line I gave is a worst-case scenario, but that's definitely not a first-round pick.
I'm sure he'll be fine, and he'll probably put up something in between my two stat lines, which will be okay. But personally I won't take the risk.
I appreciate the feedback. Maybe he is a little more risky in a roto format. I play in a points league (as I know you cover here) and his last three years average is 3.5 last year, 4.0 in '07 and 3.7 in '06. So he is probably more attractive in my format.
Kevin,
You're right, points leagues equalize things a bit. However, he HAS lost value from the two seasons when he hit 20+ HR. I mean, dropping 10+ HR from your yearly total is at least a 60 point drop.
In fact, in points leagues, I feel that the trio of 20+ HR guys (Drew, Peralta, Hardy) have great value, and in later rounds.
In CBS's three-year average of points, Rollins actually ties Hanley for 2nd among SS. The problem with that statistic is that it includes his two big HR years...
Patterson:
Re: Pedroia - I think you're underrating Pedroia's huge batting average. If he's hitting .315+ with a ton of runs and 15/15 at 2B, then he is worth his ADP whether he matches the 84 RBI again or not.
Dawkins:
Re: Hernandez - He improved across the board except walks (but still lowered his WHIP) and he's all of 23. The expectations were far too high from the jump, but I think it's unfair to suggest he's been inconsistent and not performed very well thus far.
RE: Paul - Everyone liked Cano's Average, too... Just saying. Pedroia is no Cano, but I don't think BA is always the best criteria. Every year since being in the majors, according to Ron Shandler, he's outperformed his xBA by at least .015. He's great already, but I'm thinking we can rule out much more improvement, and I think most people expect him to continually get better.
The only name I'm really surprised by on this list is from my own brother. LoL I'm confident that Kinsler can overcome the injuries, but I guess we'll just have to wait for him to prove that.
I also just wish to point out the... coincidence... that a majority of these players come from Boston and Philadelphia. If it's any indication about how I feel with those teams, I absolutely agree with each of those particular doubts. Although, for the sake of one of my keeper leagues, I really hope Hamels continues to be a top 10 starter (top 5 would be nice).
Mark,
Personally, I've ALWAYS underrated Red Sox players. It was always purely to avoid being an overzealous homer like a buddy of ours that drafted John Burkett in 2003...
..in the 5th round.
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