Minor League Talents - Neftali Feliz

This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.

Neftali Feliz - SP - Texas Rangers

Injury and Health
His pitching motion is efficient and should limit injuries. He did have a large increase in innings last year and should be limited to 150 innings at all levels this year. If they push him too much, I would be concerned.

Skill Set
Neftali Feliz was part of the Mark Teixeira trade and has become the Rangers' top prospect. His skills are still very raw as he is just entering his twenties and filling out his body. He has been able to hit 98 on the radar gun for awhile now and collects plenty of strikeouts. He struck out 16 batters per inning in low A ball and kept it above 11 at high A ball. He only pitched 45.1 innings at AA and had a 9.33 K/9.

His problem is the same as many young pitchers: his BB/9 is always above 3 at all levels. His peak control was shown at high A ball with a 3.07 BB/9. He needs to work on this as he progresses in order to be a truly elite talent. He has the skill to mix plenty of strikeouts with walks, but this year will be big on his progression. I would like to see the strikeouts stay above 9, and the walks under 3.

His groundball rate is good, but not great. He has held a GB% around 47% in the minors. This helped control his homers against. His HR/FB in 2008 was 3.1%, which is much too low. His FIP will rise when this returns to league averages, but we'll need to see more from him to access how he will progress to the majors.

His spring training numbers have been pretty normal with a lot of strikeouts, but still walking a lot of hitters. He still needs seasoning in the minors.

Feliz warms up before the game.

Major League ETA
Feliz is the big name in Texas, and I see him making an appearance in 2009. It might just be for a cup of coffee in September though.

Conclusion and Advice
Baseball Prospectus puts his ceiling at ace and the floor at a star closer. This looks good to me. He should be owned in all long-term keeper leagues, but other leagues should wait until 2010 when he might get his first real shot at the majors. Baseball Prospectus also has two comparables of note: Rich Harden and Jake Peavy.