Now that Johan Santana has put his opening day start in question due to a sore elbow, is it time to start moving Johan down your draft board?
His pitching style is not a concern, as the changeup is a pitch that is very good for arm health and doesn't cause excess stress on the arm. He also has a slider, but he only uses it 11% of the time. Last year was Santana's first season in his whole career with 3500+ pitches. I don't always believe this is a huge determining factor, but it is a possible warning sign. He also lost some speed from his pitches in 2008, but it wasn't enough to be to concerned.
I don't target any pitchers who go in the first two rounds, as there is to much hitting talent to pass and pitchers are the most susceptible to injuries. This doesn't mean that a pitcher like Johan isn't worth an early pick, but now with his elbow problems you have to push him back to at least the end of the second round in value.
I'll leave the injury analysis to Corey, but in any draft I wouldn't take Johan until my third round pick at this point.
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