H2H/Points Strategy: Saves: The Road to Last Place

This year I saw something I never thought I’d see in a draft, of any kind. In a H2H keeper league, during the offline FA draft, a team chose four closers for his first four picks. If there is a quicker way to the bottom of the standings, I couldn’t tell you what it is. Here’s what happened.

The active roster allows 3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 P. So at least he can roster them all. But nothing hurts you more in a H2H league than focusing on the specialized categories. Yes, one can make the argument that decent closers can help out in ERA and WHIP, and even contribute a few K to the weekly total. However, the only category you’re “guaranteeing” is saves, and even that’s up for debate. Saves can come steadily each week, or they can pop up in bunches. Joe Nathan started off the 2007 with hardly any save chances. Even with four closers, there’s a decent chance you can lose to a team with three closers, and a slimmer (but still existent) chance that you could lose to a team with only two. What’s more, the lack of IP from closers means that they don’t really help your team ERA and WHIP all that much, especially in a weekly H2H league.

But let’s assume that having four closers will win you saves every week. In the long run, you’ve locked down one category each week. There’s still nine to go. By drafting so many closers so early, this team has really limited its other positions. I would have worked on beefing up the starting rotation or filling in the offensive holes. The team does have some good offensive keepers (Hanley and Miguel Cabrera are the two offensive studs, followed by V-Mart and Uggla), but either 1B or 3B is currently vacant. Here are some of the corner infielders the team passed up on in its closer pursuit: Chipper Jones, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Pena, Alex Gordon, Chris Davis, and Jorge Cantu. Personally, I’d take any of them over guys like Brian Wilson or Matt Lindstrom. As for starters passed up, here’s the highlights: Jon Lester, Edinson Volquez, Zach Greinke, Chad Billingsley, and Ricky Nolasco. Fuentes and Valverde are good RP options, but they aren’t worth more than those strong starters.

Points League Spin
In a points league, saves definitely serve their purpose, but no one in their right might would draft four closers. Oh, wait, I’ve played against someone who did. The guy really did play all four closers every week. He drafted two “aces,” and he had a few average SP that he’d plug in when they were a two-start option. He averaged about 5 saves a week, though there were weeks where he had 9 saves and dominated, and there were weeks where he only got two or three, ending up with a terrible point total.

Let’s look at the math here. Closers usually pitch an inning, and they might give up a hit or walk, as well as strike someone out. That comes to about 60 points, or 65 if you’re feeling generous. Using four pitcher spots to get 60 points isn’t that great; that’s an average of 15 or 16 points per roster spot. When Team Closer got 8 saves in one week, an average of two per closer, one can assume that the roster spot value doubles to 30 points. However, when you factor in the weeks when he got 2 or 3 saves, his roster spot value was halved to 7 or 8 points.

If a SP does his job, he’s probably going to net you 15+ points in one start, with a chance at 25. If I get some average or above-average 2-starters, I can usually count on at least 20 points, with an upside of 30. The ace starters average nearly 20 points a start over the season, so a 2-start from them could result in 40 points from one roster spot.

When it comes down to it, the four-closer strategy really only outscores the “standard” SP and RP mix one in three times. A third of the time it comes near the standard value. The other third of the time it actually comes in a lot lower. It's a big gamble, and the odds and pay-off aren't very great. It's better to rely on a standard mix of SP and RP.