So we all make predictions that border on crazy sometimes, but the four of us here at RotoSavants are going to make our strongest predictions and track them this year. These aren't just guesses that we hope might happen, but are based on some reasoning we will defend. Each week we will release one new fearless prediction. We would like to hear your most fearless predictions too in the comments.
Kevin Slowey will be more valuable than Carlos Zambrano or Cliff Lee.
I have stated many times how much I like Slowey this year, but how much do I think he can do? He is a control pitcher and his strikeouts are not elite, which limits his value, but he will still beat both these pitchers in ERA and WHIP and have a solid shot at wins. Lets look at how he beats each pitcher.
Carlos Zambrano has always had a problem with walks and has never had a K/BB over 2.50. His talent has been in his high groundball rate and limiting home runs. Unfortunately his GB% has dropped almost every season and is close to being average. His current stat line can only support an ERA above 4.00 and he could be as high as 4.50 without some improvement or luck.
Cliff Lee had an amazing season and has had success before winning 18 games in 2005. His 2008 K/BB was about the same as Slowey, but his amazing ERA came from a very lucky HR/FB at 5.1%. His GB% dramatically increased to limit his HR against. It will be interesting to see if this is repeated with some pitching change. He also had the best BB/9 in his career and even a small step back will decrease his K/BB from the elite level.
How does Kevin Slowey Succeed?
Kevin had the third best K/BB in baseball with 160+ IP last year. This is something he can't improve on much, but his low GB% can be improved. His groundball rate got better in the minors and in his last full season (2007) in AAA he had a GB% of 42.4%. If his GB% had been at 42% in 2008 his ERA would have been at 3.70 last year and much more targeted in 2009.
My final estimate will have Slowey beating Lee and Zambrano in ERA, WHIP and within 2 wins of each.
