I picked two hitters for this study. I'll start with some general comparisons.
OPS
Player 1 has a career 348/498/846 split.
Player 2 has a career 336/498/833 split.
Power
Player 1 has a career .217 ISO, and a 3 year HR/FB% of 14.37%, which fell by 3 points(to 11.2%) in 2008.
Player 2 has a career .206 ISO and a 2 year HR/FB% of 15.1% (only 2 years in the majors, increased in 2008)
K/BB
Player 1 has increased his walk totals from 8.3% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2008 while decreasing his K% from 15.7% to 13.6%
Players 2 increased his BB% from 5.4% to 6.3% in 2007 to 2008, and held his K% steady at 20.8%
Projections
Bill James gives Player 1 a projected OPS of 362/504/866, good enough for a .288/92/29/120/0 line.
Bill James gives Player 2 a projected OPS of 346/519/865, good enough for a .292/91/29/100/13 line.
So just looking at these facts, I deduced the following:
1) Player 1 and 2 show similar power potential (you can argue player 2 has more) and R opportunity based off their OBPs.
2) While Player 1 has produced some gaudy RBI numbers, he's given you nothing in steals. Is a stat that is purely dependent upon situational batting worth losing out on double digit steals? It's not like player 1 is also hitting 10+ more HRs. James gives them pretty much identical lines except for RBIs and SBs.
But most importantly:
3) With the facts I've presented above, and now looking at Bill James' line, I would argue that these two players are basically the same. As always, I prefer the 5 tool player to an extra 20 RBIs.
Knowing the above, does anyone else since this looks odd?
2009 ADP
Player 1 - 25.1
Player 2 - 88.0
My fearless prediction? Based off this and their projected ADPs, Hunter Pence will be more valuable to your team than Justin Morneau.
While Pence only has two years in the majors, he had some terrible luck last year (a plummeting LD% and an odd increase in GB% and IFFB%), while slightly improving on what everyone thought was his biggest problem: his walks.
So I'll go out on a limb and say 2009 is the year Pence puts together his first full successful season, and gives you Morneau's stats nearly 6 rounds later. Pence's struggles last year and his lack of counting stats, along with another strong RBI showing by Morneau should let you stretch Pence past R7-9 in most drafts, and he'd be a solid #3 OF.
And even if you don't believe Pence will outperform Morneau, hopefully this claim will make you take a critical eye towards Morneau, and realize he's not late 2nd/early 3rd round caliber.
Fascinating. Never would have thought their lines were that close.
ReplyDeleteI don't deny Morneau is a solid player, but he just goes too early for me to ever grab him. On the other hand, I don't usually end up with Pence, either!
I hope Pence can reach the expectations we've all had for him. If so, he'll be a great play for 2009--and then we'll have to pay full price next year!
I'll admit that Pence is a bit of a pet project for me, but I was surprised (pleasantly) as well.
ReplyDeleteI think Morneau carries a ton of name value. He has the MVP award, he's been in the running multiple times, so there's this understanding that he's going to somehow blow up one year statistically in some 40/130 tune.
The fact that his ADP is around 22 is astonishing. A quick, unresearched list of top 1B for me would probably go:
Pujols
Howard
Cabrera
Prince
Tex
And I'd probably prefer Adrian Gonzales' upside next over Morneau. So even if he's the 6th 1B available, how is he going 22nd?
That's my big beef with him; he bein marketed as a safe pick, but at the expensive of value. He's perceived as so safe that it's like betting on the house in Blackjack.
I would put Berkman in that top 5 with his ability to steal 10+ bases at 1B and have a solid BA.
ReplyDelete@Troy
ReplyDeleteLike I said, quick and dirty list. I think I'd easily slide him in at 4.
That just makes my argument even more prevalent. Are 1Bs going that quickly this year?
No reason to draft a 1st baseman early. Give me Delgado in the 11th round.
ReplyDeleteThe name of the game is 30300. also called collecting studs, but a stud is 30 hrs 300ba. That's Morneau. Used to be known as TexMorn (due to always directly following another 30/300 in the rankings) but lately the Tex and the Motn have been getting sliced, with the Morn getting dissed quite regularly lately.
ReplyDelete@Anon
ReplyDeleteI actually agree with that. Unless I'm grabbing a big 5 tool guy early, there's no reason to not take a power position that gives you less than 30 HRs.
But Morneau is barely a 30HR guy, especially after posting only 23 HRs last year and seeing a huge drop off in his HR/FB. Why take him rounds 2/3 and not Votto in Round 8?
I think Morneau's overvaluing is coming from his RBIs. People see the 110+ RBIs and get all giddy, forgetting he has zero control over that.
Without Joe Mauer to start the season that 110+ RBIs is a big question mark right now. You lose a .400 OBP guy who bats in front of you for a time and the chances are going to drop.
ReplyDelete3 yr av 29 298
ReplyDelete3 year averages are misleading without any context.
ReplyDeleteDo you think a guy with a 3 yr average of 35.3 HRs and a .287 average should be more valuable than Morneau? Without context, you'd probably say yes, except that player has an ADP around 78. Try to figure out who it is.
The context around Morneau's performance is very telling of his perceived vs actual predictive performance. A huge drop off in HR/FB is a big warning sign.
3yrav as of now
ReplyDeleteHe was speaking of Jermaine Dye and he does not deserve to go in the 2nd round.
ReplyDeleteAlso using 3 year averages ignores the fact that Morneau has declined in HR, HR/FB and ISO for three straight years. You can't ignore that he only hit 23 homers in more ABs than any previous season.