Draft This, Not That: Ricky Nolasco VS Rich Harden

In DTNT, we offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.

You’d think I wasn’t a Cubs fan. Yes, after suggesting you take Gil Meche over Carlos Zambrano, I’m now suggesting that you avoid another Cubs pitcher. The guy I prefer is also officially an injury risk, but I’m more confident in his ability to provide statistics for a full season. I suggest you take Ricky Nolasco over Rich Harden.


The Reason for Rolaids: Rich Harden
There’s no denying Harden’s dominance last year. I mean, an ERA just above 2.00 and a WHIP just above 1.00 is a great achievement. Plus, he ranked 18th in strikeouts despite missing time. But that’s of course the biggest issue with Harden: he always misses time. It’s one thing to miss a few starts and get, say, 25+ starts per year, but he’s only reached 25 or more starts twice in his career, and 2006 and 2007 resulted in only 13 starts combined. Frankly, as a fan and as a fantasy manager, I don’t care how dominate a guy is if he hardly ever pitches. When you consider his shoulder tear and that he was very close to having offseason surgery, this is a guy you want to steer clear from.

What’s more, he can only go 5 innings, so on top of losing out on starts, he’ll never reach a high IP count to strongly influence your fantasy stats, and he could also miss out on some wins as well. Another issue I have is that this year you have to pay for him, whereas before 2008 less people were willing to gamble on him. Instead, in 2009 you could pick up relievers from the FA pool to equal his stats, as opposed to wasting a middle round pick. Like most restaurants, you can make your own “Pick Any Two” combo. “Can I get JP Howell (2.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 92 K) and Jose Arredondo (1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 55 K), please?” If you have the ability to slot in two non-closing RP—or even just one good one—you could end up coming out ahead of any Harden owner, who could suffer an ulcer when Mr. DL misses one … then two … then five starts in a row.

Something else I noticed in Harden’s stats is his remarkably low BABIP, as well as a high strand rate. Of course, some pitchers can maintain a level lower or higher than league average, but Harden’s career BABIP is .280, and his 2008 BABIP was even lower at .265. That’s not likely sustainable, which means his WHIP (and in turn his ERA) is likely to rise in 2009. Also, while his above-average strand rate can partially be explained by the fact that he’s a strikeout pitcher, it also seems unsustainable; in Harden’s two other seasons over 100 IP, his strand rate was 71% and 78%. Even if you assume he can maintain that high 78%, that means his rate of 84% in 2008 is going to fall in 2009, which will raise his ERA.

Ricky Nolasco
If you’re going to take on an injury risk, this is your guy. According to Fantasy Pitch F/X, in 2007 Nolasco dealt with right elbow tenderness, landing on the 15-day DL, and then he had right elbow inflammation, which resulted in 95 days on the 60-day DL. However, he’s had a full year of production since his injury-plagued season, whereas Harden still isn’t in the clear. Also, despite the high average pitch counts in his last 20 starts, he had a very strong second half: 3.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 119 K, 9.2 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/BB. Because of his great control, and Harden’s tendency to walk batters, Nolasco posted a better K/BB rate than Harden for the season, 4.4 to 3.0.

Of particular note is Nolasco’s improvement in groundball percent, line drive percent, and fly ball percent in the second half. Line drives more often fall for hits, and obviously less flyballs means there’s less chance of giving up HR. In the first half, his G/L/F percents were 34/21/45. In the second half, they were a much improved 43/17/40.

Although Nolasco’s ERA and WHIP might not be as low as Harden’s, I like his ability to maintain strong K/9 and BB/9 rates, and he’s more likely to actually help your team out all year. In H2H and Points leagues, the ability to make starts is a large factor, and that also gives Nolasco a nod over Harden. The final consideration that we usually cover in DTNT: the pitchers’ ADP. On ESPN, Harden is the 23rd SP, while Nolasco is 32nd. On Couch Managers, Harden is 14 and Nolasco is 30. I’ll take the healthier guy with a dominant second half, and he’ll be available at least a round later.