In DTNT, we offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.
Everyone knows that the corner infield spots, and in particular first base, are deep positions where you can get power production and good RBI numbers. Despite the fact that almost every manager in the league could walk away with a 20-HR first baseman, there’s a few who go too early in most drafts, and there’s a few who have move value in later rounds. I’ll gladly let Red Sox fans jump all over Kevin Youkilis, and then I’ll pick up Joey Votto a few rounds later.
Kevin Youkilis
Youkilis had a fantastic season in 2008, and fantasy owners were pleasantly surprised. Everyone knew he was a nice option, with eligibility at both corners, but he outperformed every projection. That’s actually the problem. Before 2008, you could get him at a good price. After 2008, a career year, you have to overpay to get him, and I don’t trust him to maintain that level of production. Youk has consistently had a hit percentage above the league average, but he outdid even his own lofty average, going from 33% the previous two years to 35%. It’s hard to believe he can sustain a hit percentage 5% over the league norm, and I’ll bet he falls back to 32%, which will bring his average back to just under .300.
Ironically, the Greek god of walks saw his walk percentage drop in 2008. While this isn’t cause for concern considering the offensive production, the slight drop in eye could lead to problems in 2009 if it continues.
Youkilis’s hr/f percent was extremely off from his past years, going from rates of 6% and 8% to 18% in the second half of 2008. I’m sure part of that is sustainable, but assuming he can repeat is risky. Can he hit 20+ in 2009? Definitely. Will he near or surpass 30? I say no. And as I said before, the fact that everyone, is so high on him means you’re paying more for a season that won’t be as good.
Joey Votto
I like the young talent the Reds have in their lineup, especially their first baseman. Joey Votto is a developing power hitter who will be a fantasy stud in 2009. His downside when compared to Youkilis is that he simply won’t get as many R because he doesn’t hit in Boston’s stacked lineup. But that’s all the downside he has, and I’ll gladly sacrifice 10 R for a stronger overall hitter. He showed growth in nearly every important category from the first half to the second half: AVG, OBP, SLG, bb%, ct%, h%. And he’s only 25, meaning he’s more likely to improve upon 2008 than Youkilis.
Here’s the fun facts that make me drool over Votto:
-Had the 8th highest OPS of all NL hitters in the second half
-2nd highest OPS for lefties against LHP, which shows he can hit anyone
-6th best OPS of players under 26
-3rd best RC/27 of players under 26
Conclusion
When you look at their ADP, Youkilis is often going at end of the fourth round, whereas Votto’s falling to almost the seventh round. How can you not pick up the better talent at a later spot? Bill James projects 7 more HR, 9 more SB, and .018 more in AVG for Votto, with 15 less runs. Ron Shandler likes Youkilis a little more than James, but Votto equals or betters every category except for runs again.
Do you think Youkilis can reach his 2008 levels again? Do you believe that Votto will reach a new level, like Bill James?
4 comments:
I disagree only because Youkilis is now, arguably the second best 3B out there now that AROD is injured. Yes, the 1B position is deep but 3B is shallow. That justifies Youkilis far earlier than Votto.
I'll have to go with the Votto argument here. My personal feeling is Youk takes a step back in power to the 22-24 homer range and even at 3B and a good R and RBI totals puts him back with Ryan Zimmerman in the 3B rankings. Votto has 30/10 potential this year and is a much better value even without dual position eligibility.
I would take Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria before Youk this year. I also think if he only gets 20-24 homers that his value could be equaled by Beltre, Reynolds, Gordon and Atkins.
Plus we can't forget Chris Davis going around the same time is to hyped right now, but should have more value than Youk as well.
I never did fully understand the Youkilis bandwagon. I don't really have any reason to back that up other than I never even heard of the guy until two years ago, and apparently he decided to already have what will be his career year last year. I have a natural aversion towards players who become so ridiculously hyped up after one or two seasons, when their stats, on average, appear slightly above average at best. There's something about the Boston kids that makes them household names. At least Pedroia has proven he's of the elite calibre at his position.
ESPN went off the deep end and listed on their scroll the top 2B in fantasy in this order
1. Pedroia
2. Utley
3. Kinsler
As a Boston fan I love Pedroia and his new comercial for the MLB video game is great as he cleans his MVP award, but this is just pushing it to far. Utley is known to be on schedule to return and Kinsler is a 20/40 threat and 20/20 as a baseline. Pedroia is definately the number 3 at 2B in my opinion.
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