Draft This, Not That: 5-cat Lite VS 1-category Studs

In DTNT, we offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.

Everyone has their own end-game drafting strategies. One popular strategy is to grab a one-category stud late in the draft. Usually this means a speedster who can nab 30+ SB. Sometimes it involves going for a power bat that fell during the draft because all he can do is hit HR. However, I’m more likely to grab a guy that can help you in every category, even if it’s only a little bit; I call them my “5-cat Lite” guys because they usually get around 10 HR and 10 SB. I figured it was time to do some research into what strategy is better, the 1-category studs or the light 5-category guys.

The Test Subjects
I created a list of players that tend to go in the second half of draft, if at all. Some guys, like Ellsbury and Milledge and Damon, tend to go a little earlier, but for the most part you’re looking at the end-game options. Let’s take a look at average, HR, and SB. I’m ignoring R and RBI because let’s face it, you’re really grabbing these players for their one strong category. Plus, the combination of SB/R and HR/RBI tend to go hand in hand anyway.


The Speedsters
Ellsbury: 554 AB, 155 H, .280 AVG, 9 HR, 50 SB
Bourn: 467 AB, 107 H, .229 AVG, 5 HR, 41 SB
Gomez: 577 AB, 149 H, .258 AVG, 7 HR, 33 SB
Pierre: 375 AB, 106 H, .283 AVG, 1 HR, 40 SB
Taveras: 479 AB, 120 H, .251 AVG, 1 HR, 68 SB
Figgins: 453 AB, 125 H, .276 AVG, 1 HR, 34 SB
Davis: 214 AB, 52 H, .243 AVG, 3 HR, 29 SB

The Sluggers
Ankiel: 413 AB, 109 H, .262 AVG, 25 HR, 2 SB
Burrell: 536 AB, 134 H, .250 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB
Cust: 481 AB, 111 H, .231 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB
Jacobs: 477 AB, 118 H, .247 AVG, 32 HR, 1 SB
Thames: 316 AB, 76 H, .241 AVG, 25 HR, 0 SB

The 5-cat Lite
Damon: 555 AB, 168 H, .303 AVG, 17 HR, 29 SB
Milledge: 523 AB, 140 H, .268 AVG, 14 HR, 24 SB
K. Johnson: 547 AB, 157 H, .287 AVG, 12 HR, 11 SB
O. Cabrera: 661 AB, 186 H, .281 AVG, 8 HR, 19 SB
C. Guillen: 420 AB, 120 H, .286 AVG, 10 HR, 9 SB
Polanco: 580 AB, 178 H, .307 AVG, 8 HR, 7 SB
Fukudome: 501 AB, 129 H, .257 AVG, 10 HR, 12 SB
DeJesus: 518 AB, 159 H, .307 AVG, 12 HR, 11 SB
Choo: 317 AB, 98 H, .309 AVG, 14 HR, 4 SB
Byrd: 403 AB, 120 H, .298 AVG, 10 HR, 7 SB
Winn: 598 AB, 183 H, .306 AVG, 10 HR, 25 SB
Lewis: 468 AB, 132 H, .282 AVG, 9 HR, 21 SB
Adam Jones: 477 AB, 129 H, .270 AVG, 9 HR, 10 SB

The Findings
The first thing I noticed is that the 5-cat options have a much better overall average than either the speedsters or the sluggers. Only three speedsters hit over .270, and the best average for an end-game slugger was only .262, by Ankiel. The 5-category guys have their stinkers in average, but 10 of 13 hit .280 or better, and 12 of the 13 guys hit better than all the sluggers. When you’re looking at utility guys that you really only plug in on off days or while a starter is injured, I’d rather have the guy that can help everywhere—and more important doesn’t hurt me in average, the one category whose total can actually be lowered by a player’s performance.

Something else to note: some of the speedsters and sluggers obviously aren’t getting full playing time. When you’re drafting guys to fill in for your regulars, you really want someone that’s a near guarantee to play. If your backup only plays one out of every two or three games, he may not even be available on the off-day when you need him. Most of the 5-cat Lite options are full-time players.

Another thing I tried was using two roster spots for combining a speedster and a slugger, creating a power-speed beast. Then I compared the results to some 5-cat Lite combinations. Here’s possibly the “best” combos:

Ellsbury + Burrell = 1090 AB, 289 H, .265 AVG, 42 HR, 50 SB

The problem with this combo is that Ellsbury goes pretty early in the draft, so it’s not the fairest example of an end-game mix and match. But look at what we can create with 5-cat Lite guys:

Milledge + Damon = 1078 AB, 308 H, .286 AVG, 31 HR, 53 SB

I fought fire with fire, using the higher ADP guys from my 5-cat Lite group. But aside from a few less HR, you’re getting a much better value out of the roster spots. You can match Ellsbury’s SB production and get 20 points more in average.

Now let’s look at some combinations with lower ADP players.

Ankiel + Figgins = 866 AB, 234 H, .270 AVG, 26 HR, 36 SB
Jacobs + Gomez = 1054 AB, 267 H, .253 AVG, 39 HR, 34 SB
Cust + Bourn = 948 AB, 218 H, .230 AVG, 38 HR, 41 SB
Thames + Pierre = 691 AB, 182 H, .263 AVG, 26 HR, 40 SB

DeJesus + Winn = 1116 AB, 342 H, .306 AVG, 22 HR, 36 SB
Johnson + Lewis = 1015 AB, 289 H, 21 HR, 32 SB
Choo + Cabrera = 978 AB, 284 H, .290 AVG, 22 HR, 23 SB
Byrd + Fukudome = 904 AB, 249 H, .275 AVG, 20 HR, 19 SB
Guillen + Jones = 897 AB, 249 H, .278 AVG, 19 HR, 19 SB

Once again, the mutant power-speed combinations might give you slightly higher totals, but the average is generally abysmal. I’d gladly take a DeJesus/Winn or Choo/Cabrera combination and capitalize on that high average.

Summary
When it comes to filling up your offensive bench, it’s best to go with guys who will help out all over. Going for a 5-category lite player is preferable because they generally have a better average, which guarantees that they won’t hurt your team while they’re active. The low-end speedsters and sluggers could give you some impressive steals or homers, but there’s good chance that they drag down your average while you wait for an eventual hot streak to come.