Here's a gem I snagged from the CBS quick player profile posts about Delmon Young(emphasis mine):
Wait, Young has the most upside of the bunch? Based on what besides random conjecture? Courtesy of The Baseball Cube, I grabbed Delmon's minor league career numbers. A couple quick points:Carlos Gomez, CF MINNews: The Twins have only three outfield spots to divide between four players -- Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Delmon Young. The quartet will compete for starting jobs this spring.Analysis: Young appears the early odd man out, which is ironic considering he probably has the most upside of the bunch. Based on last year's numbers alone, Gomez or Cuddyer wouldn't get to start, but Gomez has plenty of upside in his own right and Cuddyer suffered from a broken foot much of last season. Span provided some intriguing Shane Victorino-like numbers as the Twins leadoff hitter last season, but he could just as easily begin the year on the bench. Of the four, Young, Gomez and Span all deserve late-round picks based on potential, but the Twins' shortage of power means Cuddyer might bump one for a starting spot.
1) Delmon's SLG numbers had two up-and-down seasons, with decent gains from the Sally League to the Southern Legaue (.536 to .582), and then from AA to AAA (.447, to .474).
2) Delmon's OBP has plummeted since he graduated to AAA, losing 80 points in a first season. He hasn't been able to crack .341 since.
3) Delmon's OPS has dropped each year between his AA and major league seasons. He peaked at 968 in AA and has regressed as far as 724 in his last year with Tampa. He rebounded to 741 in 2008, which I'm guessing is clearly linked to recovering from a pathetic 316 OBP in 2007.
4) Delmon's HR/FB% has dropped since his climb to the majors sporting a 10.7% in 2006, and 7.6% in 2007 and 2008.
Even though Delmon wowed the Sally and Southern Leagues, and was very young for his next stop in his career (he's still only 23), his declining OBP skills upon reaching the majors, very low LD%, and complete disappearance of plus power are huge concerns. Even though he took a few tiny steps forward in 2008, a 5.8 BB% and 18.7 K% are quite frightening major league numbers(See Ellsbury, Jacoby).
While Delmon does have some "upside" based on his age 18-19 seasons, he's still a useless commodity in fantasy. Wouldn't having a bench player like Gomez, who can at least contribute with steals make more sense than a player who's struggling to regain whatever solid skills he apparently once had?
Just mentioning him in the same breath as Cuddyer right now is silly. Until Delmon does something of value at the major league level, he's purely an also-ran in fantasy play and doesn't deserve any upside mention next to a legit 20HR player.
Just one more guy to cross off your list.
goI agree with your post overall. I just posted an article talking about the hype of rookie SP this weekend. Hitters certainly aren't immune to the same kind of treatment. Just because Delmon Young COULD be a 25/25 hitter doesn't mean he WILL be.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, he is so young that despite his regression, he could eventually put together a good fantasy line. Do I think it'll happen in 2009? No. But he's young enough to so something with his career, and I could see him as a #3 (maybe #2?) OF in his prime years.
Exactly. Much like the Rookie SP article, Delmon doesn't really offer anything concrete for your team this year.
ReplyDeleteIf he strings together an 800+ OPS year this year, we can think about him being a viable piece of your fantasy team, but for now, it's just another guy to let someone else draft.