Gavin Floyd: Ugly Step Sister
Here he is, our site's favorite punching bag. This quote is from CBS.
First, let's not worry about what his draft position was. Don't make me start bringing up this guy, Yankee fans. Floyd's red flags were much more than just a pedestrian strikeout total:
People, Floyd was a top prospect -- the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, in fact -- so what happened last year happened as a result of natural progression. Now that Floyd has found his footing in the majors, he should only get better, even if he falls short of 17 wins. He could stand to strike out a few more batters and walk a few less, but neither strikes me as a glaring weakness. I'll take him as my fourth or fifth pitcher and do it with a smile.
First, let's not worry about what his draft position was. Don't make me start bringing up this guy, Yankee fans. Floyd's red flags were much more than just a pedestrian strikeout total:
- His unattractive BB/9 (3+) that is pretty consistent on all levels of play for him. Without having elite strikeout metrics, a pitcher with a high walk rate is always flirting with dangerous territory.
- His horrendous 2008 FIP (4.77)
- A very low BABIP (.267)
- A dramatic drop in HR/FB% (19 to 17 to 11?)
This worries me about a pitcher who spends the majority of his starts at the Cell. When I combine the above warning signs with the park factors and the fact that Floyd has really shown no signs of improving his control, I tend to side with Floyd's FIP as to what his actual ERA should have looked like.
Four leading stats projectors(thanks Fangraphs!) give Floyd expected FIPs of: 5.14, 5.03, 4.82, and 5.30. That's an average of 5.07. Even if we assume that Floyd can somehow pitch above his head in the same manner, chopping .93 off his ERA like in 2008, that only gives us around a 4.14 expected ERA for 2009. For a low strikeout pitcher, why bother? He's not undervalued; he's merely average.
This makes me sad since the expert I quoted above for Floyd is, in my opinion, one of the better media-based fantasy experts out there, and easily the best expert on his site. Floyd is looking like fantasy baseball's Gonzaga. We all want them to win, but we need to think with our heads instead.
Elijah Dukes: Cinderella
Here's another expert snippet on Dukes:
Let's start with some tidbits of Elijah:
1) His .235 batting average is a tad misleading. In 52 games with the Rays in 2007, Dukes only batted .190. Ouch. However, he hit only 10.6% line drives and still had a BABIP well under expected at .192. In 2008 with he Nationals, he played 81 games and had more respectable numbers. A .264 batting average and an eBABIP that matched basically dead on with his BABIP. When you consider the odd amount of line drives in 2007, the strange amount of infield flyballs (17.9%), and the fact he played 30 less games, I'm more than willing to chalk 2007 up as a little more fluky than accurate.
2) Even with those splits, Dukes had monstrous HR/FB ratios of 14.9 and 18.8(!). If Dukes was able to keep that up the entire season, his HR/FB ratio would have placed him 18th overall in 2008. Just behind a guy named Miguel Cabrera, and ahead of other guys named Prince Fielder and Mark Reynolds. If anything, that should be an excellent indicator of his power potential.
3) Dukes has excellent plate discipline, walking over 15% of the time. Any player with good OBP skills gives you more changes for Runs and SBs.
I definitely see Dukes as a late round 20/20 option, and that ADP of 214 (Round 14-18) seems perfectly fine. He has the tools and now finally has the playing time. Provided he stays off the DL and doesn't turn into the next Milton Bradley(or threatens anyone by text again), 2009 could end up being a breakout year. If his HR/FB ratio can sustain his 2007 value, he easily has 25+ HR power.
Josh Beckett: Cinderella
ESPN gave us this quote:
Josh Beckett had one of those years where his "classic" baseball numbers clearly were underwhelming per your expectations. The difference is that he was basically the anti-Gavin Floyd (I really need to stop bashing him, huh?)
Josh Beckett finished 2008 under-performing his FIP by .79 points of ERA. For his career, Beckett has only had a difference of FIP and ERA of more than .21 in either direction, even during his horrendous 2005 season when he had serious control problems and an unnatural HR/FB rate. Only his first full season(2002) and 2008 did we see a difference like that, and both occasions had his ERA was a bloated mess above his FIP.
His K/9 and BB/9 both slightly improved compared to last year while his HR/FB ratio climbed a full 2% over 2007. Beckett has kept (outside of 2006) a relatively consistent sub-10% HR/FB, so I'm willing to wager somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 is a more accurate portrayal of his expected HR/FB.
Also, Beckett saw an very odd increase in his LD%, jumping almost 50% over his 2007 numbers! His career line is probably a better indicator of where this should lie, and this would cause a decrease in his opponent average.
These two points tells me Beckett's ERA was unfairly inflated last year, and he'll definitely be a better shot as his Bill James line (3.54 ERA) than a repeat of last year's performance. Beckett had a 5+ K/BB in 2008, and a 4.83 in 2007. What more can you ask for out of your pitcher? He's in his prime, and he's performing at a very high level.
Beckett is a stud. Treat him like one, and clean up with a couple rounds saved on draft day. And if the Red Sox defense improves a bit this year, maybe his expected ERA will be more like we are used to seeing.
This worries me about a pitcher who spends the majority of his starts at the Cell. When I combine the above warning signs with the park factors and the fact that Floyd has really shown no signs of improving his control, I tend to side with Floyd's FIP as to what his actual ERA should have looked like.
Four leading stats projectors(thanks Fangraphs!) give Floyd expected FIPs of: 5.14, 5.03, 4.82, and 5.30. That's an average of 5.07. Even if we assume that Floyd can somehow pitch above his head in the same manner, chopping .93 off his ERA like in 2008, that only gives us around a 4.14 expected ERA for 2009. For a low strikeout pitcher, why bother? He's not undervalued; he's merely average.
This makes me sad since the expert I quoted above for Floyd is, in my opinion, one of the better media-based fantasy experts out there, and easily the best expert on his site. Floyd is looking like fantasy baseball's Gonzaga. We all want them to win, but we need to think with our heads instead.
Elijah Dukes: Cinderella
Here's another expert snippet on Dukes:
7. Elijah Dukes, Nationals: Potential, potential, potential. Nobody will deny that this 6-foot-1, 240-pounder has that. Just 25 and on a team just waiting for a star to emerge, Dukes has wasted his potential thus far as he's hit just .235 in two partial MLB seasons. The believers are lining up for him, however, this season as his ADP is 214 and he even went for $21 in the LABR NL auction. The potential is 20-plus HR and 20-plus SB, but I'll believe it when I see it.If you've been reading this site long enough, you'll remember our comments about the unimportance of batting average when discussing a player's growth potential, and how it is not a huge indicator of talent. Players can sustain mediocre batting averages and still perform at a high level, while some players can have a satisfactory batting average and be worse than league-average overall(Pierre, Juan).
Let's start with some tidbits of Elijah:
1) His .235 batting average is a tad misleading. In 52 games with the Rays in 2007, Dukes only batted .190. Ouch. However, he hit only 10.6% line drives and still had a BABIP well under expected at .192. In 2008 with he Nationals, he played 81 games and had more respectable numbers. A .264 batting average and an eBABIP that matched basically dead on with his BABIP. When you consider the odd amount of line drives in 2007, the strange amount of infield flyballs (17.9%), and the fact he played 30 less games, I'm more than willing to chalk 2007 up as a little more fluky than accurate.
2) Even with those splits, Dukes had monstrous HR/FB ratios of 14.9 and 18.8(!). If Dukes was able to keep that up the entire season, his HR/FB ratio would have placed him 18th overall in 2008. Just behind a guy named Miguel Cabrera, and ahead of other guys named Prince Fielder and Mark Reynolds. If anything, that should be an excellent indicator of his power potential.
3) Dukes has excellent plate discipline, walking over 15% of the time. Any player with good OBP skills gives you more changes for Runs and SBs.
I definitely see Dukes as a late round 20/20 option, and that ADP of 214 (Round 14-18) seems perfectly fine. He has the tools and now finally has the playing time. Provided he stays off the DL and doesn't turn into the next Milton Bradley(or threatens anyone by text again), 2009 could end up being a breakout year. If his HR/FB ratio can sustain his 2007 value, he easily has 25+ HR power.
Josh Beckett: Cinderella
ESPN gave us this quote:
Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: You saw that part where I said Bronson Arroyo was better than Beckett in the second half, right? It's not that Beckett was bad, it's that he's not as far ahead of the pack as you'd think. Plus he's been with Alyssa Milano and has that stupid soul patch.Let's ignore the pathetic attempt at snark, as I doubt anyone (myself included) who writes about FANTASY SPORTS ON THE INTERNET has any right being smug about Alyssa Milano. Remember, fantasy baseball is the sports version of D&D.
Josh Beckett had one of those years where his "classic" baseball numbers clearly were underwhelming per your expectations. The difference is that he was basically the anti-Gavin Floyd (I really need to stop bashing him, huh?)
Josh Beckett finished 2008 under-performing his FIP by .79 points of ERA. For his career, Beckett has only had a difference of FIP and ERA of more than .21 in either direction, even during his horrendous 2005 season when he had serious control problems and an unnatural HR/FB rate. Only his first full season(2002) and 2008 did we see a difference like that, and both occasions had his ERA was a bloated mess above his FIP.
His K/9 and BB/9 both slightly improved compared to last year while his HR/FB ratio climbed a full 2% over 2007. Beckett has kept (outside of 2006) a relatively consistent sub-10% HR/FB, so I'm willing to wager somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 is a more accurate portrayal of his expected HR/FB.
Also, Beckett saw an very odd increase in his LD%, jumping almost 50% over his 2007 numbers! His career line is probably a better indicator of where this should lie, and this would cause a decrease in his opponent average.
These two points tells me Beckett's ERA was unfairly inflated last year, and he'll definitely be a better shot as his Bill James line (3.54 ERA) than a repeat of last year's performance. Beckett had a 5+ K/BB in 2008, and a 4.83 in 2007. What more can you ask for out of your pitcher? He's in his prime, and he's performing at a very high level.
Beckett is a stud. Treat him like one, and clean up with a couple rounds saved on draft day. And if the Red Sox defense improves a bit this year, maybe his expected ERA will be more like we are used to seeing.
I couldn’t agree with you more…on all counts.
ReplyDeleteBeing a first round pick does not automatically bring a player a step above the rest. Look no further than other 2001 first round pitchers; Josh Karp, Chris Smith, Colt Griffin, etc…The mediocre numbers speak for themselves. Flyod’s 17 wins were a fluke at best.
Dukes caries just about as much upside as one can get in a late round player in 2009. He’ll play everyday and seems to be having a relatively calm training camp off the field (good thing). I’ll be more than happy to have him as a 3-4 OF while others invest in Nick Swisher.
When Beckett is healthy he racks up the K’s and limits the walks. That’s all I am looking for. Not W or ERA projections
Good stuff.
Charlie,
ReplyDelete"When Beckett is healthy he racks up the K’s and limits the walks. That’s all I am looking for. Not W or ERA projections"
Absolutely. Draft the things you can control. That's why if you put a gun to my head, K/BB would be the metric I'd use if I could only judge a pitcher off one stat.
Sports version of D&D. OUCH!
ReplyDeleteAs someone intimately familiar with D&D, trust me, it's about as accurate as it gets.
ReplyDelete/super nerd
There is no doubting Dukes ability, but to say he will "play everyday" without question is incorrect. The Nats still have Kearns and Willingham. In addition, Milledge, not Dukes is Washington's golden boy. He is firmly cemented in CF, and at leadoff, at this juncture. Since we know Dunn will play everyday, and with Johnson whining about starting, the majority of his starts will likely have to be in left field. Which leaves right feld for dukes, Kearns and Willinghan until a trade is made. Even if the Nats do manage to move Kearns, Dukes and Johnson will still be the two main players that sit in favor of Willingham getting at bats. At least until Johnson lands on the DL again. With that being said, 450 at bat's may be Dukes upper limit this season. Which doesn't destroy, but certainly doesn't contribute to his value.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteExcellent point, and something I should have clarified outside of just saying, "he finally has playing time".
Even if we assume his upper limit is about 450 ABs, I still think his other metrics warrant a selection on or before his ADP. Of all the Wash outfielders(Assuming Dunn plays 1B), I still think I like Dukes' potential the best; he'd be the first of their OFs I select after Milledge, who is definitely being given the opportunity out of the gate.
Purely based off other players being selected around him (Fukudome, Willingham, Guillen, Byrd, Teahen, Kubel), I still believe he's being undervalued for his upside.
I definitely appreciate the comment; you added some great depth to this analysis.