As many have seen with my top 100 draft list I am not a fan of aging players. The use of steroids in the past 20-30 years has greatly played with our expectations, but the majority of players enter a decline phase during their ages of 32-34. Some can maintain previous levels, but the majority will decline and/or stay the same. Very few will show an increase in ability though.
When approaching a draft I try to limit how many hitters I get in the 32+ age as I am looking for an increase in skill and not similar number to last year. This is obviously different for many players going in the first 3 rounds as your primary expectation is for many to give similar results to the previous season.
A good example of this is Derrek Lee and Joey Votto. According to ESPN draft tracker Derek Lee is going at the 60th pick and Joey Votto is going at the 87th. This is more than 2 rounds later. Not only is Votto at a point in his career where his skills are improving, but in 4 less games and 109 less plate appearances he had comparable numbers with the largest separation being runs. In 2009 Joey Votto will be the better fantasy baseball option and I would look for him as such.
Lastly I don't want this to be an exaggerated strategy and just always going for the 27 year old as some sites will tell you. The idea is when handed two players of similar perceived value I will shy from the player over 32 and target the one under 30.
Don't forget to check out Diamond Draft Software to use in your 2009 drafts.
4 comments:
Couldn't agree more. I never go to the extreme of "Never have a 30+ player," but I always look for youth, because that could mean growth and a breakout year. Of course, it can often mean middling stats lower than the veteran (cough Alex Gordon cough).
The big selling point is that veterans are generally bigger names, as well. More people recognized a player that's been playing for five or ten years, so they'll take him before a newbie. This is where you can pick up some steals in drafts.
I mostly agree with drafting young, and I usually do so myself. But I would simply like to point out that there are exceptions to every rule. I think the key to certain veterans that people undervalue is consistency. Players like Derek Lowe, Roy Oswalt and Bengie Molina add value to where they play year after year, because anyone drafting them pretty much knows what they're getting out of it. And I wouldn't say either of them is exactly OVERvalued, though I don't know what their ADP is, I'm just kind of assuming. Roy is obviously the best of the three, but there are a few younger pitchers who go before him, and only provide equal or marginally better stats. And Derek Lowe has certainly made a bigger splash for himself the past few years. I know certain up-n-coming studs deserve a shot, and may provide better stats for that season. But that's if you want the gamble. Some of those veterans are good choices because they're "safe".
Again, I usually avoid drafting Lowe or Molina unless I feel they really are the best of what's left at that time. And every veteran has their decline start somewhere (thanks for last year, Vladdy). I'm just saying that, with certain veterans more than others, you can take their stats to the bank and not worry about it. There's a certain value to that, I would think.
Thoughts on Berkman and age? He died in the second half last year...
Like I said I try to "limit" those over 32, but it's not a general rule.
Berkman is still a solid choice this year and the second half was more regression to the mean than a overall poor half. His final OBP of .419 was very impressive.
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