Our first Buyer Beware post is going to say watch out for recently cursed Phillies ace Cole Hamels. Sports Illustrated reports that Hamels is getting checked out for a sore elbow. The team sounds optimistic, but this sounds like John Lackey to me from 2008. I would avoid him at anything right now unless he is falling into the 10-11 round range, but that probably won't happen.
Corey: By now most of you know how I feel about Hamels, namely that you can get better value elsewhere when he is healthy. Now that we have information that his wing is bothering him, it really is a question of how much risk are you willing to have in your number one pitcher. This isn't a pitcher who is injured for the first time. He has had several injuries with his arm previously and then last year threw over 262IP which includes the playoffs. Ultimately, where the pain is located will drive my risk tolerance.
If the pain is in the triceps (similar to Lackey last year) then I would approach with caution and monitor the situation. If the soreness is on the inside part of the elbow/forearm, I would not draft him unless he gets ridiculously low in the draft because his flexor mass or ligament is comprimised to some degree. Even if it's "only" tendinitis in the medial (inside) aspect of the elbow, some biomechanical changes and forces are causing it. Most likely it'll be a combination of subtle laxity and fatigue from last year. In the end, pitchers who have arm problems in the past, don't miraculously heal an area that is of this much concern.
His performance and your team will likely suffer. Don't let you and your team be the guinnea pig for his stubborness.
Great stuff, I love Hamels but after that workload I'm sure even the Phillies will be very careful about even the mildest twinges.
ReplyDeleteHamels seemed to be overvalued anyway this year even before this came out. So, I agree, this is definitely a stay away situation. I also think it makes J.A. Happ even more of a late-round flyer type.
ReplyDeleteAnytime you win a World Series MVP the value comes up because the average fantasy player starts to get excited. He was over valued to begin with.
ReplyDeleteHowever - I do think he could slide to a point that makes him valuable. I just took Ervin Santana really late in a draft (12th round) and if Hamels is around in the 9th or 10th I would be elated.