2009 Sleeper - Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson had his first season over 150 games played, but with a small step back in power many fantasy managers are overlooking a very valuable player. He has to make some improvements, but based on his past he can do it in 2009.

Minor Leagues and Early Career

Johnson started 2005 in AAA and hit 8 homers in only 155 AB. He had a 1.50 BB/K rate and had a batting line of .310/.438/.581. He was calledup and appeared in 87 games that year for the Braves. He continued to show good power with 9 homers in 290 AB, but a BABIP elbow expected levels left him with a line of .241/.334/.397.

He then lost his 2006 season to Tommy John surgery on June 1, 2006. This left him as a sleeper for 2007, and he supplied big time as a second base option. He hit 16 homers and stole 9 bases with a hitting line of .276/.375/.457. His numbers all looked great, and he was healthy as well.

Disappointing Season

2008 was a disappointment to many as his power took a step back, and so did his walk rate. Kelly has had a walk rate over 12% both previous seasons in the majors, but in 2008 he was only walking 8.7%. His average was improved, but both his OBP and run totals fell. He was swinging at 7% more pitches, and many of those were out of the zone pitches.

He did steal 11 bases, which helped him maintain good value as a second baseman, but much more was expected. He has also only played 2B for two years now and is still learning the position.

2009 Outlook

There are many reasons to still think highly of Kelly, as even his poor 2008 was an above average line for a second baseman, but also he has shown better performance in the past. He showed a 10% HR/FB in 2007 right after the surgery, and that should be attainable. He also didn't lose much in his SLG as it went from .457 in 2007 to .446 in 2008. This was a result of a large increase in doubles, going from 26 to 39.

RotoSavants would never suggest a player on the fact that he is 27, but the growth of a player often reaches a pinnacle near that age, and Kelly could still have some growth in him.

He is liked by most projection systems to beat his 2007 season. PECOTA is calling for 92/17/75/12/.287, making him the 6th best 2B and the 62nd best value in drafts. CouchManagers.com has Kelly going in the 12th round of drafts, and he is an excellent steal there. I would suggest looking to Johnson if you do not get Utley or Kinsler earlier in your draft.

2009 Roto Savants Sleepers