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I also thought this was interesting:

Manny improved his defense in 2008 as well as his hitting from 2007. He had his highest Value Runs total since 2003 and was worth nearly $30 million based on wins above replacement. On the other hand he hasn't been worth $20 million in a season since 2005 and his offense and defense were in steady declines since 2002-2003. I see no reason for any team to pay him more than $15 million a season if he wants multiple years and 18-20 million for one season.
All figures are from FanGraphs.com
From a GMs perspective, why would you sign Manny to anything but a one year deal.
ReplyDeleteIf you keep him to 1 year deals, he's probably going to be at peak performance all year, much like his second half with LAD.
That Manny can "flip a switch" and go from a solid hitter with Boston to a guy with a 219 OPS+ is a little too coincidental.
He's still a decent producer in fantasy terms. Especially because he doesn't seem likely to get the long-term contract he wanted, he'll have to keep performing in order to get the money he wants. But the warning is out there. If he drops far (for him) in a draft, I'll definitely grab him.
ReplyDeleteAs a GM, I'd say "screw you" and let him go. Anyone who stops producing because he doesn't feel like it isn't worth the risk.