A quick note: There were far more hitters that reached 400 points than there were starters. Because of this, I’m relaxing the limit a bit, just like with catchers.
Something to bear in mind with this list: I’m not saying that every one of these players can/will score 400 points this year. But they have a high enough K/9 rate to earn 350+, so as long as they are given a rotation spot and can pitch enough innings, they bear monitoring. Some of these players’ spots in the rotation are not guaranteed, so watch them for the rest of the off-season to see what develops.
Starters who had a K/9 over 6.3 and only need higher IP
B. Morrow: 10.4 K/9; if starter, should reach 400
J. Cueto: 8.8 K/9; gopheritis only problem
A. Sanchez: 8.7 K/9; but IP likely won’t be high enough to top 400 points
G. Gonzalez: 8.7 K/9; just needs seasoning, but he’ll have points value in future
J. de la Rosa: 8.6 K/9; needs to control walks, but good second half to build off of
W. Rodriguez: 8.6 K/9, 282 pts in 137 IP = 370 in 180; a good sleeper pick
JA Happ: 8.4 K/9; IP likely to be restricted
S. Gallagher: 8.0 K/9; needs rotation spot
J. Johnson: 7.9 K/9, 194 pts in 87 IP = 400 in 180; with full season, he’s a lock
U. Jimenez: 7.8 K/9, 329 pts in 198 IP; only thing stopping his value is control/BB
Y. Petit: 7.8 K/9; rotation spot a concern
J. Maine: 7.8 K/9; injury makes more risky, but lowers ADP
S. Lewis: 7.6 K/9 in the minors; watch to see if he wins rotation spot
D. Purcey: 7.6 K/9; not likely to reach high enough IP, but a sleeper nonetheless
A. Miller: 7.5 K/9; with revamped delivery, could break through this year
M. Owings: 7.5 K/9; not as bad as surface stats indicate; if given chance, could be valuable
I. Snell: 7.4 K/9; talent is there, and it won’t cost much to get him
B. Arroyo: 7.3 K/9; undervalued, but steady aside from a few (really) bad games
S. Marshall: 7.1 K/9; needs rotation spot
J. Jurrjens: 6.6 K/9; rate got better in second half, a good sign
J. Reyes: 6.6 K/9; youth likely to keep him from high enough IP
H. Bailey: 6.5 K/9; starting to drop off people’s prospect lists, but could surprise
A. Galarraga: 6.4 K/9; on the border, could be a good sleeper
Overvalued: lower K/9 rate
G. Floyd: 6.3 K/9; made the cut, but barely, due to high W total; high HR allowed is scary
D. Lowe: 6.3 K/9; made the cut, but questionable road skills last few years could hurt in ATL
M. Buehrle: 5.8 K/9; valuable for his consistency and reliability, but not a high-point guy
J. Saunders: 4.7 K/9, 391 pts in 198 IP; don’t expect a repeat without higher K/9
M. Pelfrey: 4.9 K/9, 307 pts in 200 IP; needs to cut down on BB to have value
T. Wellemeyer: 6.3 K/9, 355 pts in 191 IP; on border, but elbow, high IP spike cause for concern
J. Guthrie: 5.7 K/9; 312 pts in 190IP; luck prevented hits; won’t repeat points even this value
K. Lohse: 5.4 K/9, 366 pts in 200 IP; high W total inflated value; track record says not repeatable
J. Blanton: 5.0 K/9; value is being on WS-winning roster, but not worth being on yours
B. Looper: 4.9 K/9; won’t score big without lucky W total, and even that’s a stretch
A. Laffey: 4.1 K/9; hyped as a prospect/sleeper, but without K/9 increase, not worth it
I noticed that a lot of your hopefuls are young arms that just haven't met expectations. Names like Ian Snell and Wandy Rodriguez and Anibal Sanchez are all pitchers who get all this hype, and now we're just waiting on that break-out season. I wish there was a better system to predict a "break-out year", especially for pitchers, but essentially, as you kind of implied, the only real way to guess is knowing if they have a guaranteed spot in the rotation. More opportunities = more chances to prove their worth. Those like Petit and Marshall and Miller are worth a flier, if they'd only say they were for sure gonna start every 5 days!
ReplyDeleteOh, and just for clarity, J. Johnson is referring to Josh Johnson, correct? I highly doubt you'd call Jason Johnson a rebound kinda player. =P
Yeah, I'm not pretending that my findings will guarantee that most of these players will break out in 2009, or ever. It totally depends on playing time.
ReplyDeleteFew pitchers reach 400 points, but I found it interesting that those who did ALL had 140+ K. Most had high IP too. So, given that IP isn't always fully in control of the starter (young guys get pulled early, or have IP limits set), I figured the best thing to target is K/9 here.
I still think Snell and Wandy are worth fliers, and because of their talent, they could surprise. Sure, they may not hit 400, but I wouldn't put it past them to suprise people and make 350+
Kevin, great article.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that could help targeting those younger pitchers who may or may not reach the high innings is target the pitchers who have pitched at least 140ish innings at all levels last year. Management will be less likely to put any type of limit on their innings and they could easily get you 180 innings or so the coming year.
I'd still use k/9 though because strikeouts are so important in the points leagues.