This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.
Update: Cahill only had a rotator cuff strain and did not have surjery. His mechanics are still a concern though and his health is still a red flag.
Trevor Cahill - SP - Oakland Athletics
Injury and Health
Cahill had rotator cuff surgery after being drafted by the Athletics. This is a big red flag, but Driveline Mechanics took a deep look and had concerns, but not extreme concerns. I would hope the Athletics take their time and don't press his progression to see how much he can handle.
Skill Set
Trevor has an amazing groundball rate that was at 61% in 2008 at AA. This should make him successful even if his K/BB doesn't excel. He was doing well in A ball, but when he got to AA last year his walks were a problem. It was a small sample and his start to 2009 will be watched closely. If he can maintain a BB/9 at 3 he'll be an strong fantasy player and very valuable pitcher to the Athletics.
He has a 92 mph sinking fastball, a looping curve ball, changup and a slider. He has played with different pitches including a knucklecurve and likes to challenge himself. As a player drafted by the A's out of high school you know he is a rare talent.
I am interested how he continues to develop his K/9 as his GB% puts him on par with Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe, but his K/9 and BB/9 will decide how successful he can be.
Major League ETA
He is still just a teenager until August and the Athletics have quite a few talented arms in the system to keep him in the minors. He hasn't had enough time at AA yet and should start there this year. A callup in September to get a cup of coffee is likely, but 2010 seems like a better shot to see Cahill become an every 5 day pitcher.
Conclusion and Advice
Cahill is a potential future sleeper for wins, ERA and WHIP. His strikeout numbers won't be elite in the majors, but if he can maintain a 60% or greater GB% he will have success. Pitching in Oakland and the AL West will help as well as any Flyballs will have a hard time leaving the park. There will be many seasons where Trevor only allows 10-14 homers.
Brett Anderson has a real shot to get a call up this year as well.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised to see both of these kids in the A's rotation by the end of next year.. if not this year due to any hits to their depth.