This as a weekly article running every Tuesday here at Roto Savants. I have gotten some questions about players, but if you have minor league drafts and want someone reviewed, let me know and I will put them at the top of the list.
Madison Bumgarner - SP - San Francisco
Injury and Health
As a high school draft choice in 2008 there is very little injury history for Bumgarner. He throws a slider and a changeup. If he is more reliant on the changeup than the slider that would be good for his health.
Skill Set
His fastball averages 93-94, but he can get it up to 97 when he needs too. His slider was reported to improve in 2008 and his changeup will be worked on in 2009. He was sent to A ball when drafted and got in 141.2 IP, which was quite impressive in his first minor league season. He was selected as the MLB Class A pitcher of the year and won pitcher of the week for the league 5 times.
His pitch components are also very impressive. He had a K/9 of 10.42, but combined with a very strong BB/9 of 1.33. This gave him an elite K/BB of 7.81. For comparison Tim Lincecum had a K/BB of 4.83. Lincecum had a much higher K/9 while Bumgarner had much better control in his BB/9.
Bumgarner finished 2008 at a record of 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA. He had luck in his HR/FB, but no matter what he had an elite debut in the pros. He projects as an elite ace and is now the top pitching prospect in baseball with David Price in the majors.
Major League ETA
It all depends on how aggressive the Giants are. They didn't rush him last year even though he dominated A ball hitters. He'll more than likely spend some time in AA this year before hitting AAA if he deserves a shot. As a high school pick he will take more time to mature and grow while college prospects like Lincecum and Price rushed through the minors. Look for late 2010 at the earliest, but more than likely 2011.
Conclusion and Advice
Bumgarner is now the top prospect target and will be watched closely as he move up the minors. He shouldn't be on your radar this year, but he will be an ace someday. When he does make the majors the Giants will have an amazing 1-2 in Lincecum and Bumgarner and be prepared for a big turnaround. In leagues with minor league roster spots he should be one of your top targets if not already owned.
Any team that realistically can have Matt Cain as their #3 is going to be in pretty good shape.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised when he does get his call, that his performance is close to what Lincecum's 2006 debut was. Low 4 ERA, crazy strikeouts, and able to be bought low in fantasy.
Then you have Sanchez as your #4 and you're talking about the best staff in the NL West even with Zito as your #5. I think a run at signing Manny and upgrading the offense could yield an interesting finish in a weak division.
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