David Price - SP - Tampa Bay Rays
Injury and Health
Price had a muscle strain in his elbow in 2008 that delayed his debut in a pro game. It was reported as a light strain and he was shut down for a period. This was not an extreme case, but it should be noted when considering Price. He totaled 123.2 IP in 2008, so I would expect a 150 IP limit placed on Price.
Skill Set
Price has great skills, but sometimes I think he is overvalued because of his polish. He is ready to face the majors, but he is not going to dominate right away. His strikeouts project to be around 7 per 9 innings and a BB/9 around 3. These are good and he has the skill to be over 2.50 K/BB, but it might take some time.
His fastball is in the low 90's and he has a a slider with great break. His changeup on the other hand is good, but has been known to be tipped by a change in arm angle. He needs to improve this if he wants to be successful as a starter. Looking at his Pitch F/x data he didn't throw any changeups as a reliever in the playoffs and went with just a fastball, cutter and slider.Major League ETA
David Price is almost a sure thing to start the season in the majors, but there is one hold up in Jeff Neimann who has no options left. The Rays will try to move him, but if they can't they might have to have Price spend some time in the pen. It shouldn't be for long as Price is going to start for the majority of 2009, but it might help him keep his innings limited.
Conclusion and Advice
David Price has a current ADP of the 12th round, which is a good spot to take him. My last concern is Baseball Prospectus who has no confidence in 2009. They give him a 77% chance of collapse and only a 1% shot at a breakout. I still like him, but just keep his limitations in mind when drafting Price.
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