Thursday, February 12

The Major League Gap

In an interview with Slate in 2003, Bill James discussed his belief that there is no "gap" from AAA to the majors and that there is more of an overlap. In essence there are a great number of players who deserve to be in the majors, making the skills shown at that AAA level real. This is why Bill James believes that minor league stats are just as good as major league for projecting future outcomes.

The use of the Quad A label has decreased in recent seasons, but players like Jack Cust and Nelson Cruz still get the label. In every case the player's talent is overvalued from minor league numbers, or they didn't have a large enough sample size in the majors. There are players who have a "disconnect" or change in skills for many different reasons, but they don't continue to display the skill when returning to AAA.

If a player has 37 homers like Nelson Cruz in AAA, there is no magic gap that will prevent him from displaying that power in the majors. This isn't a guarantee for these players to break through, but just the chances of reaching projected levels are the same as players who are in the majors continuing their production.

I would suggest removing Quad A as a label from your fantasy baseball and drafting based on projections you trust.

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