In points and H2H leagues, grabbing the two-start pitchers is a common strategy. When you realize how much risk there is to this strategy, however, you’ll see the value in drafting quality starters.
The “average SP” percentages (and the “good” and “bad” labels) are taken from Ron Shandler’s percentage of dominating (DOM%) and disaster (DIS%) information. Fantasy managers could plug in their own concept of good, bad, and neutral starts, but that wouldn’t change the outcome very much. For example, in a points league, one could generally consider a good start 12+ points, a neutral start 5-11 points, and a bad start as anything under 5 points. Then of course, there’s the really bad starts, which earn you negative points, but I’ll touch on those later.
Chances of Start Quality
Good SP: 50% good, 30% neutral, 20% bad
Average SP: 40% good, 35% neutral, 25% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Presumably all good SP will be constantly rostered, so managers who play the “2-start” game are picking from the average and poor categories. I’ve even seen managers grab the guys that are owned in under 10% of leagues (Brandon Backe comes to mind) just because they’re a two-start option. The math doesn’t support this strategy, though. Take a look at the odds.
Chances of Two-start Week
Using our broad categories, two starts in a week presents nine outcomes: GG, GN, GB, NG, NN, NB, BG, BN, BB. Let’s lump these into “good 2-start” (GG, GN, NG), “neutral 2-start” (GB, NN, BG), and “bad 2-start” (NB, BN, BB).
Good SP: 55% good, 29% neutral, 16% bad
Average SP: 44% good, 32% neutral, 24% bad
Poor SP: 33% good, 33% neutral, 33% bad
Bear in mind that the raw numbers don’t take into account the fact that a really bad start (one that earns you negative points) can sink your point total. In my own mind, I’d lump more of the neutral categories toward the “bad” end: any good start given is strongly offset by a bad start, especially a negative-point start. This is one reason Ron Shandler doubles the weight of DIS% when comparing it to DOM%. In my mind, any 2-start SP I pick up cannot have a bad start, or else it’s not worth the risk when compared to starting one of my own 1-start SP (or a closer). My preference would eliminate the neutral category. Therefore a “Good” week would become GG, GN, NG, and NN; and a “Bad” week would include any bad-start combo: GB, NB, BG, BN, BB.
Chances of Two-start Week, Polarized
Good SP: 64% good, 36% bad
Average SP: 56% good, 44% bad
Poor SP: 44% good, 56% bad
Summary
Whichever breakdown you prefer (with or without the “neutral” category), the numbers are startlingly in favor of good pitchers. Going with several 2-start options each week is more risky than many believe.
When it comes to H2H and points leagues, are you going to draft strong starters in the middle of the draft, or will you dally in the FA pool and roll the dice with the odds against you?
