Draft Matt Kemp, Not Carl Crawford
This week, I’m making a tougher decision between two young, five-category contributors. Any fantasy team would be really happy with either OF, but I’m choosing Matt Kemp over Carl Crawford.
The Reasons
Obviously, Crawford was injured last year, but even that doesn’t factor into my decision. Looking at Kemp’s 08 season, he put up a strong line: .290/93/18/76/35. C
rawford’s three-year average from 05–07 was solid: .307/94/15/79/51. Although Crawford’s SB is better than Kemp’s, what sells me on Kemp is the fact that he’s developing the power that Crawford was projected to have but hasn’t reached. Kemp’s slugging in 08 was .459, and he hit 18 HR, which is Crawford’s best season total. Crawford’s slugging from 05–07 is better than Kemp’s, but the numbers are inflated by triples, not home runs. In Ron Shandler’s PX score, Kemp easily has Crawford beat: Kemp had a 119 last year, and Crawford’s best in the last four years is 101.Both players are young and will have many more elite years in the future. However, Kemp is 24, which gives him more time to develop further. Crawford might finally see that spike in power, but he’s nearing his peak, and Kemp’s ceiling is probably higher.
The final tie-breaker lies in ADP. In mock drafts right now, you can get Kemp an entire round later, on average. Considering Crawford will have to prove that he’s back on track, I’ll take the guarantee and bank on 20 HR and 35+ SB from Kemp.
Crawford could be the ultimately 5 category player, but we've been saying this for years.
ReplyDelete"His doubles are going up, here comes the power!"
Unfortunately, he's not giving us much to work with anymore, yet I find it strange his draft value still hasn't dropped.
Kemp may have one more year of being a lower ADP player you can get under the radar until he finally surpasses him.
I would say Crawford's ADP HAS in fact dropped, when just about two years ago, he was considered a first or second round draft pick. Some considered him the outfielder to have. But, of course, that was all speculation on him being a 5-tool player. I think Kemp just needs more SB opportunities. Crawford's best years in SB's, the years he had over 50, all correlate to a 5-10% increase in SB opportunities from the other years. Kemp's speed is not that far behind, though he'd be hard pressed to match Crawford's SB success rate. That's one thing Crawford has going for him, in points leagues especially.
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