In DTNT, we offer up comparable players (or stats or strategies or whatever), reveal our preference, and provide an analysis to support it.
A few years ago we wouldn’t be having this discussion. And some of you will still react violently to it, throwing your Cubs ice buckets full of bear-shaped ice cubes at my head. But it’s time to face facts and recognize that for 2009, Gil Meche is the better pick over Carlos Zambrano.
Zambrano
Big Z has been pitching with a high workload for years. He threw over 100 pitchers more often than not in 2008, and he usually goes late into games. While some value this show of stamina and are ready to compare him to Roy Halladay for his staying power, it’s really more of a cause for concern: aside from the advertised shoulder injuries, the warning flags are now showing up in his stats. His K/9 rate has dropped drastically from his 2004–2006 days, when it was over 8.0. He’s never been great at control, and though he posted his best BB/9 rate last year, you can’t help but wonder if it was due to his arm troubles: if he’s not throwing as hard, he may not be as wild as he was before. Fantasy managers would rather have the K/9 return than have a pitcher who walks less but strikes out even less. The problem was, in the second half his K/9 and his BB/9 did bounce back some, heading toward “normal” for him, but his ERA skyrocketed too. Big Z had a rather low hit percentage in the second half (25%), which accounted for his low WHIP, but it’s bound to return to a higher level, as he’s averaged 27% over the last five years. Another cause for concern is his rising OBA over the last four years: .213, .212, .235, .244.
Meche
While Zambrano has been struggling and getting worse, over the last few years Gil Meche has been improving, though not many have noticed due to his pitching in Kansas City. After two injury-plagued years, he had two straight healthy years, and his respectable K/9 rate rose to 7.8 in 2008. Fantasy managers have to love that he got even better in the second half, increasing his K/9 by 1.2 and lowering his ERA by 1.33. The reason his WHIP didn’t fall was due to a slightly unlucky hit percentage of 32%. And one of the reasons he had such a high ERA in the first half was due to a very lucky strand percent of 67%, which is below the league average and Meche’s own career average (his lowest over the last four years has been 70%).
Aside from better overall stats, Meche was extremely consistent throughout the season. Despite Zambrano’s no hitter, Meche had more dominating games than Z, and far less bad games. In 2007 they were neck and neck on both fronts, but in 2008 Meche has pulled ahead. Consistency is something to be valued in both H2H and Points leagues, and while Zambrano has flashes of brilliance, he also falls far into disaster. The swings are hard to live with, and with his shoulder injury looming, Zambrano requires a high risk tolerance, too high for me.
Summary
I’m waiting for Cubs fans to firebomb my house, but I still stand by my choice of Meche over Zambrano. Big Z’s inconsistency and shoulder problems are no match for Meche’s improvements across the board over the last two years. Bill James is still holding out for a turnaround from Zambrano, though you’ll notice the commonly high BB/9 and the K/9 rate below his earlier years. And James isn’t sold on Meche, either:
Zambrano: 3.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 163 K, 7.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Meche: 4.10 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 160 K, 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
For once, Ron Shandler’s projections vary quite a bit from Bill James. He’s a fan of Meche, and he doesn’t trust Zambrano this year:
Zambrano: 4.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 K, 6.6 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Meche: 3.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 K, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
I’m siding with Shandler here, with the tiebreaker for me being Meche’s consistency.
Will you tolerate the roller coaster ride, or will you avoid the high swings of Big Z this year? Do you believe there’s something to be said for consistent production all year round, or will you look for the players on hot streaks?
1 comments:
I've never really pictured Zambrano as a staff ace anyway (except the period of time when the Cubs just had no one better). It's his inconsistency that drives a fantasy owner as batty as the opposing batters, but in a negative way. I've been high on Meche as roughly a #4 pitcher for a couple of years now, somehow missing the fact that he did in fact have injury problems. But he always manages to fly under the radar and exceed expectations, even if just slightly, year to year.
As far as ADP and value/worth is concerned, I agree, Meche is a better deal. People are silly to think Big Z deserves to be a #1 starter on any team. But I'll still say Zambrano has a higher ceiling/better talent than Meche. When he's hot, we all dance like him.
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