Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles
Nick Markakis has consistently been going early in drafts for the past few seasons, but is he really worth this? The RotoSavants.com team will take a look.
Troy Patterson
Markakis popped up on my 2009 potential overvalued list last season with a high BABIP. He does support a high BABIP, but not over .350. Markakis has established himself as a consistent producer, but nothing spectacular. He hits 20 homers, steal 10 bases and solid run and RBI totals. The problems start when you look at his career high in BABIP last year and his highest career K%. If these both return to normal levels his average is good, but not .300 level. He did have a large increase in BB%, which will be interesting to see if it stays, giving him a .406 OBP. Even a small drop in BB% would be strong and help him maintain a solid OBP and run totals. This was his best year for OBP though and his steals dropped to 10, so I don't expect him to top 10 steals in 2009.
Bill James is confident he will repeat his 2008 season with 104/22/99/10/.309, but is that worth a 3rd round pick where he is going in many drafts? I would have to say no, but the consistency makes it an acceptable decision. You are giving up a strong chance at growth for a sure thing.
Corey Dawkins
I was the one in my league who actually drafted him last year but later traded him. I obviously think he is talented but I have to admit that I fell into the trap of "breakout year". He's not the type of hitter that breaks out, he's just a very good but not great professional hitter. I expect basically the same stats from him this year again and I would pay accordingly. I do think he is worth a low 3rd round pick though because of the consistency and stats. Others in that range will likely not be able to provide you with one or the other.
His high BABIP is largely due to a line drive % over 20% as line drives fall for hits more often than any other type of contact. Finally this will be his 4th full season in the majors and he's only going to be 25. So again, I expect that he will produce fairly closely to what he did last year but I don't expect a breakout.
Lee Perrault
Like Troy said, Markakis is a known quantity. He has respectable K and BB rates, plays solid defense, and is a cornerstone of the young Oriole offense, which supports their 6 year deal with him last month.
The more important question is, how do you separate Nick's real value from his fantasy value? While any GM would salivate over a 26 year old corner outfielder whose OPS has climbed 100 points over the past 3 years, does he warrant a #1 OF slot on your team?
Markakis is currently about a 3rd round pick in redraft leagues, averaging an ADP of 34. Couchmanagers.com gives us a breakdown of the other supposed 3rd round picks near Markakis:
| 25.9 | 26 | 3 | Brandon Webb SP | 27 | +0.1 | +0.9 | |
| 26.1 | 27 | 3 | Justin Morneau 1B | 28 | 0 | +2.3 | |
| 26.4 | 28 | 3 | Carlos Quentin OF | 26 | -0.8 | -1.4 | |
| 27.8 | 29 | 3 | Aramis Ramirez 3B | 30 | +0.2 | +1.8 | |
| 28.3 | 30 | 3 | Carlos Lee OF | 29 | -1.5 | -2.5 | |
| 30.7 | 31 | 3 | Adrian Gonzalez 1B | 31 | -0.8 | -1.5 | |
| 31.6 | 32 | 3 | B.J. Upton OF | 34 | +1.5 | +1.8 | |
| 32.4 | 33 | 3 | Carl Crawford OF | 32 | -1 | +0.6 | |
| 32.6 | 34 | 3 | Nick Markakis OF | 33 | -0.4 | 0 | |
| 32.8 | 35 | 3 | Brandon Phillips 2B | 36 | +2 | +3.5 | |
| 33.9 | 36 | 3 | Jake Peavy SP | 35 | -0.1 | -0.5 | |
| 36.1 | 37 | 3 | Brian Roberts 2B | 38 | -0.5 | +0.4 | |
| 36.1 | 38 | 3 | Cole Hamels SP | 37 | -0.8 | -1.4 | |
| 36.6 | 39 | 3 | Jason Bay OF | 39 | +0.9 | +3.5 |
Just based off this list, I'm curious why a player who put up lines of:
06 - .291/72/16/63/2 (491 ABs)
07 - .300/97/23/112/18
08 - .306/106/20/99/10
Is suddenly a 3rd round pick. If Markakis was putting up SB numbers over 25 and was a legit 30/30 possibility, I could see his value at that draft slot. But 20/20 players exist at much better values. I find in the first few rounds, you need to focus on players who are capable at giving you an elite level of production across ALL categories.
- Not OFs with high SBs and terrible HR and RBI rates (Ellsbury, Crawford, Upton)
- Not OFs who barely scrape by 20/20 numbers and are merely "ok" everywhere else(Markakis)
Think of Markakis' name value like a car. Why would I pay $65k for a Porsche Cayenne, when I know it's really just a VW Touraeg with a $30k sticker on the front of the hood? Do I do it just so I can say, "lolz, I has a Porsche!!11", or do I really think that car is worth another $30k? These are the questions you need to ask yourself with Markakis(and especially other players in this 2nd-4th round area:
1) What is he really doing that's worth another 2-5 rounds over similar players(some examples below)?
2) If I pass on him, how can I more efficiently use this slot, to obtain the same (or better) stats?
Bill James' line for Markakis is a good starting point for analysis. I would say instead of spending your 3rd round pick on Markakis, look at these players later in the draft:
| 43.3 | 44 | 4 | Matt Kemp OF | 46 | +1.8 | +1 |
Bill James says: .311/96/19/80/32
Kemp might be the breakout we all kept saying Crawford would be. His James line is basically Markakis with much more SB potential.
| 57.5 | 60 | 5 | Adam Dunn OF | 58 | -2.8 | -4.9 |
Bill James says: .242/100/42/103/7
Dunn might be the best 40 HR value in the draft. His 242 average isn't going to bother you unless you have a team full of guys like him, and the fact he can touch a handful of steals helps diminsh these "5 category guys" who barely scratch 10 steals.
| 77.9 | 82 | 7 | Joey Votto 1B | 84 | +1.5 | +2.4 |
Bill James says: .307/87/30/102/13
Votto has OF in some leagues, and is basically giving you a supercharged Markakis line 40 picks later.
If left with no other options, Markakis is not a "bad" pick. I just don't think in Round 3 he is the most efficient pick.
Just based off ADP, what group of players would you rather have in Rounds 3 and 7?
- Markakis, Billingsley/Oswalt/Zambrano/Shields
- Webb/Hamels/Peavy, Votto
Knowing that Shields is a little undervalued, I'd be psyched to lock up Webby and Shields in 3 and 6, and grab Markakis' production via Votto in 7.
My philosophy with starting pitching plays in here. If I know there are a group of hitters available in Round X that I know I can get similar production Y rounds later, I'm perfectly comfortable taking a starting pitcher.
ADP does one wonderful thing, it lets you see some inherent bias and favoritism, and allows you to identify players who put up similar production and their round discrepancies. Names are evil. They make us fall into traps and overpay for some players. Make sure you look at the big picture in your draft because sometimes, passing on a player you REALLY want might make the best sense for your team.
Kevin Jebens
I agree that drafting him in the third round could be problematic. Markakis has an unusually high groundball rate for a “power hitter.” Were he to turn a few grounders into fly balls, he’d have no problem hitting over 25 HR. But can he? That’s not something anyone can answer. After another season, we’ll have three full years of data to work with, not to mention he’s still young and developing.
Regarding Troy’s comment about his K% being the highest of his career, I don’t think that’s a big sticking point. He’s only had two completely full seasons, so that “career high” is a bit melodramatic. And besides, his K total for 2007 was 112, and in 2008 it was 113. It’s a higher K% because he had fewer AB (637 compared to 595), but that only changes the k% from 17.6% to 19.0%. He’s still a cut above other known strikeout victims, like Dunn (31.7%) and Howard (32.6%), and at least he hits for average.
Something of value for H2H and Points leagues is that he’s remarkably consistent, as was already mentioned. He only had two weeks where he scored under 10 points, and only five weeks where he scored under 15 (two of those weeks, he scored 14). With this fact, taking him in round three is actually not a reach for H2H/Points.
My final note is about his hitting percentage, or BABIP. Yes, it was pretty high last year, especially in the second half (36%). However, despite the “regress to the mean” concept, some hitters are known to maintain a career hit% above the league average, which is about 30%. Markakis has been above that 30% every year of his short career: in 2006 he was 32%, in 2007 he was 33%, and in 2008 he was 35%. Therefore, even though his hit% could fall from 35%, it should still stay above the league average, which should maintain his high BA. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another .300 BA from him.
To close up, here are some tidbits that could support a coming breakout.
Rankings in AL
—Fourth in 2B
—Second in BB
—Third in OBP
—Seventh in OPS
—Fifth in RC
—First in away BA
—First in OPS for hitters under 26
—First in RC/27 for hitters under 26
In Second Half of 2008...
—HR, hr/f went down, but
—BA, OBP, SLG, ct%, eye all went up
