Points Leagues - Do the Math: Part Two - Offense Stats

In part one of this article, I emphasized the value of knowing the way points leagues differ from rotisserie and even H2H, and there were three big takeaways: 1) all stats are equalized by being turned into the same unit, 2) it doesn’t matter where the points come from, and 3) know your league rules to judge point values. Part two will concentrate on what stats to target, as well as some of the common variations in private leagues.

High SLG = More Points
The basic math is quite simple when it comes to hitters: power dominates the standings. A HR nets you a minimum of 6 points: 4 for HR, 1 for R, 1 for RBI. Obviously if there are men on, the total goes even higher. What a lot of people don’t realize is that all extra-base hits are extra valuable. Guys who primarily hit singles, like Ichiro Suzuki (84.5% of hits 1B) and Derek Jeter (78.2%) and Christian Guzman (73.2%), have a lot less appeal, especially if they aren’t big base stealers, like Jeter and Guzman. It’s best to load up on big boppers, but if you can’t get a power-hitting guy with 20 HR at every position, look for the every-day players that have a SLG of at least .420.

Why .420? According to CBS’s sortable stats, 93 hitters earned over 400 points. How many of those 400-point hitters had a SLG under .420? Only 10, which is 11%. Or to put it more impressively, 89% of the hitters who scored over 400 points had a SLG over .420.

Note that the only three OF who managed to have 400+ points with a SLG under .420 were speedsters with over 40 SB: Ichiro Suzuki, Jacoby Ellsbury, and BJ Upton.

The one position that is the aberration is SS, so let’s look at those players: Michael Young (465 pts), Orlando Cabrera (448), Derek Jeter (435), Miguel Tejada (421), and Ryan Theriot (409). What led to these 400+ points? The number of AB (580 or more for all) is the biggest indicator. This is a bit of a “duh” concept, as more chances means more points: of all hitters who equaled or exceeded 580 AB, only 4 of 47 (8.5%) didn’t earn 400 points. If any of these SS lose playing time, their totals risk dropping below 400. (For what it’s worth, the one 2B with SLG under .420 and points above 400, Placido Polanco, also had 580 AB.)

The Devaluation of SB
The downside to most points leagues is that they really sap the value of SB, especially now that CBS Sportsline has implemented -1 point for every CS in their public leagues. (See the list of the new scoring here.) With SB only worth 2 points to start with, only a handful of speedsters are worth it. Even the guys with top SB totals can lose around 10% of their point value, and some who looked good with five-category contributions now lose that fifth category completely: Hunter Pence stole 11 bases in 2008, but he was caught 10 times, reducing his SB points to 12. And what’s worse, a SB is only a third as valuable as a HR. In other words, Jose Reyes’s wheels nets you 97 points after compensating for CS, which is equivalent to 16 solo HR. Even the top basestealer of 2008, Willy Taveras, nets you 129 points after compensating for CS, which is 21 solo HR. Instead of grabbing the Ellsburys (459 points in CBS’s new format) and the Suzukis (515), a guy like Brian Giles (464) or Conor Jackson (458) can get you near those point totals, and at a much lower round in the draft.

Strikeouts: No, They Aren’t That Bad
Yes, we all know about Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn’s K totals. It’s a sap on their total numbers when strikeouts count against you, especially when they cost a whole point. Luckily, CBS only removes half of a point, which I believe is fairer.

But in a points league, even with the -0.5 penalty, the majority of the top whiffers are still fantasy forces. Look at the top ten strikeout victims in 2008, with their point totals: Reynolds (416), Howard (567), Cust (397), Uggla (466), Pena (446), Chris Young (450), Dunn, (494), Kemp (476), Thome (455), and Ludwick (537). That’s a solid group of point producers, even with the 70 to 100 points they lose because of strikeouts. The only guy I would hesitate about drafting is Cust, but even he almost makes the 400-point cut (of which only 93 hitters reached in 2008).

Need more reassurance that strikeouts aren’t death to your team? I looked at the top 5 in strikeouts at each position (excluding catcher), and here’s what I found: only 3 of the 25 players had point totals less than 390: Khalil Greene, Jack Hannahan, and Bill Hall. Take a look at these three hitters. None of them have a SLG over .400. None of them added much to their point total by the way of SB. And only Hannahan had over 40 BB. So in other words, they don’t hit for tons of power, they don’t steal, and they have a worse eye than Milhouse. Or in another set of other words, they don't really deserve a starting gig on an MLB roster, let alone a fantasy roster.


Summary
Here's the down-and-dirty summary. Anyone care to argue?

1) SLG over .420 gives you the best point scorers
2) SB not as valuable in point leagues. If targeted, need very high total OR high success %.
3) Strikeouts aren't detrimental to total points unless hitter has low AVG, OBP, SLG, and SB.

Coming Up
Part Three of "Do the Math" will focus on starting pitching and the categories you need to target. Part Four will be my a draft preparation guide, listing players who are overvalued for points and hitters who fall under the radar but can put up comparable total points.

Points League Analysis Part 1