Points Leagues: Do the Math (Part One)

Here are profiles for two pitchers. Which one would you want?

SP A: 198 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 145 K
SP B: 198 IP , 4.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 175 K

The beginning fantasy manager will lean toward pitcher A. However, the experienced manager automatically asks, “What are the league rules?” Because believe it or not, in a standard points league, starter B (352 points) is actually more valuable than starter A (340). Not by an enormous amount, but the real shock value for most people is the fact that they’re close at all. (Note to readers: I’m ignoring the points from wins in my analysis, as they aren’t controllable by the starter, assuming he doesn’t pitch like Jaime Burke and keeps his team relatively close.)

Whenever an experienced fantasy manager joins a new league, he automatically looks at the rules. But this is especially important in points leagues, because—here comes the blasphemy—it doesn’t matter how your players actually get their points. Everything is equalized by the conversion to points: three doubles nets you 6 points, but a solo homer earns the same point total. And those 6 points can also be earned by a pitcher shutting down the opposing team for 2 innings and striking out 2 batters.

Starter Example
Want some real-world proof from 2008? How about comparing the two Santanas, Johan and Ervin? All in all, there’s only 30 points separating the two. When you think about Ervin’s ADP, both this year and last, it’s astounding. For those of you who will argue that Ervin wasn’t a fantasy force in 2007 and therefore is a bad example, how about Roy Halladay, who is an ace and is highly recognized but still doesn’t go as high as Johan? Halladay outscored Johan by nearly 20 points, yet he was drafted several rounds later. What’s even better, the ADP reports from Mock Draft Central and Couch Managers show that despite Halladay’s great 2008 season, he’s being drafted in the mid-40s for 2009, while Johan is averaging a mid- to late-teens pick. (And while I said I wasn’t counting win total, you might notice that the Santanas both ended up with 16 wins, making that a wash in an argument against Ervin. And Halladay? He had 20 wins, which further skyrocketed his value.)

Johan = 234.1, 206 H, 63 BB, 66 ER, 206 K = 473.83
Ervin = 219 IP, 198 H, 47 BB, 85 ER, 214 K = 444.5
Halladay = 246 IP, 220 H, 39 BB, 76 ER, 206 K = 492.5

Hitter Example
For the hitters, I’m going to look at some CF options.

Suzuki (ADP 25, 36) = 180 1B, 20 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 103 R, 42 RBI, 51 BB, 43 SB = 547 points
McLouth (ADP 57, 50) = 89 1B, 46 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 113 R, 94 RBI, 65 BB, 23 SB = 615 points
Ellsbury (ADP 64, 63) = 117 1B, 22 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR, 98 R, 47 RBI, 41 BB, 50 SB = 504 points

Suzuki is being taken in the second and third rounds, while Ellsbury and McLouth are going at least two rounds later. Mock Draft Central reveals that McLouth’s latest pick has been 104th, which translates to the eighth round! All those Suzuki singles are great for your team’s BA in a 5x5, but in a points league they’re far less valuable.

So the lesson’s learned: knowing your league’s scoring is crucial in drafting for points leagues.

Coming Up
In part two of this article, I’ll look at the statistics to target, reveal some good bargains for both offense and starters, and address some of the common adaptations (such as -1 point for offense strikeouts).